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Axios AM Climate Truths: Future of climate tech

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A lot of mature technology already in use can reduce the impact of climate change — but to really hold global warming in check, experts say we need breakthroughs too.

Why it matters: The world is nowhere close to achieving — or even starting — the emissions cuts needed to keep the Paris Agreement's temperature targets within reach.

To get there, today's technologies, such as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, will have to be deployed faster. But it will also take investment in tech that's close to being deployed at scale in some cases, but nowhere near it in others.

In other words, the glass on climate-saving tech looks half full if you squint right — but half full isn't enough.

The big picture: The technologies that cut carbon emissions from electricity, transportation, heavy industry and farming can be viewed on a spectrum.

On one end are established and increasingly mainstream systems like solar, wind, heat pumps and electric cars that are gaining market share.

The good news is that renewables are economically competitive now. Right now, EVs are typically more expensive than gas-powered cars. But battery costs are on a downward march, and many EVs are already cheaper than internal-combustion models on a lifetime fuel cost basis.

Then, in the middle, there's a wide swath of technologies that are well known but require varying degrees of advances on cost and scale, such as carbon capture, "green" hydrogen, long-duration battery storage and cleaner aviation fuels.

And on the other end are new, unproven systems that, if deployed at scale, could make a major dent in greenhouse gas emissions or be used to bring countries closer to their net zero goals. 

Think, for instance, of "direct air capture" and other methods of hastening removal of CO2 that's already in the atmosphere — as opposed to carbon capture, which blocks the CO2 from entering the atmosphere in the first place.

By the numbers: According to an International Energy Agency analysis of what's needed to reach net zero emissions by 2050:

Roughly 80% of the emissions cuts needed through 2030 would come from technologies already on the market, but stronger policies and investment are needed to speed up adoption, the analysis finds. 

But nearly half (46%) of the cuts that would be needed in 2050 are from technologies that are at the demonstration or prototype phase.

"In heavy industry and long distance transport, the share of emissions reductions from technologies that are still under development today is even higher," the IEA notes.

Between the lines: Expert groups have sketched out various scenarios for which technologies will be most important to achieve the 2050 goal.  

For example, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresees a greater role for carbon dioxide removal methods. 

The common thread, however, is that technologies under development today could soon become a linchpin of our strategy to hold global warming below potentially catastrophic levels.

Also, no single technological breakthrough will save us from global warming's effects. 

What they're saying: Stanford energy expert Arun Majumdar tells Axios he's an optimist on the progression of climate tech that's not yet at commercial scale, though he also offered some caveats.

He said the progress on solar, wind and batteries has been "fantastic," but "that took 30 years. The only thing is that we cannot wait for 30 more years. And so the question is, can we accelerate some of the innovations going on?"

Majumdar listed some of the many outstanding needs, such as decarbonizing heavy industries like cement and steel. Others include greatly cutting costs for long-duration energy storage on power grids, as well as coming up with ways to tackle atmospheric methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.

"We need to figure out a way to remove methane from the atmosphere. That's an R&D problem that I think we should pay attention to," said Majumdar.

What we're watching: the progression of policies and investment worldwide.

The U.S. has a basket of policies to accelerate the use of existing tech, bring less mature systems to scale, and boost R&D and demonstration of systems that are still in early development.

The new climate law provides an unprecedented level of new or expanded tax incentives for renewables, EVs, carbon capture, energy efficiency upgrades, energy storage, "clean" hydrogen and more.

$270 billion of the law's $369 billion in climate spending comes via tax incentives, per the Treasury Department.

Elsewhere, the bipartisan infrastructure law steers over $21 billion into demonstration projects for advanced nuclear, long-duration storage, industrial decarbonization and more.   

1. The steady progress of climate tech

There's a lot of technology already in use, but experts say we need breakthroughs too.

Illustration of a large cursor arrow pointing upwards towards an image of the Earth, and surrounded by graphic shapes and lines

Climate truths

A lot of mature technology already in use can reduce the impact of climate change — but to really hold global warming in check, experts say we need breakthroughs too.Why it matters: The world is nowhere close to achieving — or even starting — the emissions cuts needed to keep the Paris Agreement&#x27;s temperature targets within reach.

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

A world hurtling toward a frighteningly hot future is driving interest in geoengineering — unproven, controversial technologies with a sci-fi flavor that could temporarily freeze global warming in its tracks but not solve the underlying problem.

Why it matters: Ethical, geopolitical and practical considerations must be wrestled with regarding solar radiation management, or SRM — the most discussed and researched method of geoengineering. 

State of play: Geoengineering, which refers to deliberate interference with the climate to try to counteract global warming impacts, may be the ultimate climate tech Band-Aid capable of temporarily covering up global warming.

But it remains controversial because of geopolitical worries, climate justice and equity concerns, long-term climate change risks, and other considerations.  

Plus, SRM, which involves injecting tiny particles known as sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation, would also only mask global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Only steep emissions cuts and, ultimately, carbon removal can bring global warming in check. 

Driving the news: With the world on course to overshoot the Paris Agreement's temperature limits, geoengineering could be used to cap global warming until the technology is available at scale to draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

More severe climate disasters, such as deadly heat waves and flooding, could push developing countries to demand the use of geoengineering for their very survival, according to Janos Pasztor, a climate scientist and veteran diplomat who leads the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative.

Solar radiation management could accomplish this in theory, though by altering weather patterns it could also cause harm to some countries and ecosystems. 

Pasztor brought up the hypothetical example of a geoengineering-related disruption of the South Asian monsoon, in a way that harms India but benefits China, two countries with a heavily militarized border. 

That means it is highly unlikely that an individual country or billionaire (even someone like Elon Musk, who already possesses rockets) can unilaterally pursue SRM, according to seven leading experts who spoke with Axios. 

This is because implementing it would require a constant stream of aerosols to be delivered. Otherwise, the world could warm up suddenly, with potentially devastating consequences. 

Successful deployment of SRM would require a fleet of jets or balloons, and at least tacit approval of some of the world's most powerful nations, Pasztor said. 

Zoom in: Currently, several groups of scientists, diplomats, researchers and other experts are working in parallel to think through geoengineering research and possible deployment. None has the imprimatur of an official agency, however. 

The Carnegie group is seeking to put a geoengineering discussion on the agenda at the U.N. General Assembly in September.

Meanwhile, at Harvard University, a research group is seeking to conduct limited tests of SRM technology, while also studying the legal and ethical ramifications of geoengineering.

A panel of experts working under the auspices of the American Geophysical Union, a U.S.-based global scientific society, is seeking to craft a code of ethics for geoengineering research for the first half of next year.

And still another entity, comprising former heads of state and seasoned diplomats, is studying geoengineering governance. Known as The Global Overshoot Commission, it is headed by Pascal Lamy, the former head of the WTO. 

Between the lines: Although much of the attention in the press and scientific community has focused on the risks associated with geoengineering, such as its potential effects on crops and precipitation patterns, there are also risks to not pursuing it, Pasztor told Axios. 

If deploying SRM can limit the severity of the temperature overshoot, a decision not to enlist such technology could be viewed as risky. 

“There are risks if we do SRM ... but there are also very large risks if we reject SRM and allow the planet to continue warming,” said Andy Parker, founder and CEO of The Degrees Initiative.

What to watch: Decisions made by governments or other entities in the next decade may determine whether geoengineering is pursued as part of an approach to tackling climate change. 

Multiple possibilities are on the table, including a worldwide moratorium on geoengineering research and implementation, and finding a suitable government forum, such as the U.N., to oversee its deployment.

The bottom line: “Society needs to come to terms with thinking about the unthinkable,” Pasztor says. In other words, a dystopian future may require dystopian responses.

2. Hacking the planet may be closer than you think

Hacking the planet is closer and more fraught than you might think.

Illustration of a the earth being targeted by wavy lines surrounded by a starry sky.

Climate change

A world hurtling toward a frighteningly hot future is driving interest in geoengineering — unproven, controversial technologies with a sci-fi flavor that could temporarily freeze global warming in its tracks but not solve the underlying problem.Why it matters: Ethical, geopolitical and practical considerations must be wrestled with regarding solar radiation management, or SRM — the most discussed and researched method of geoengineering.

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

Volume-weighted average lithium-ion battery pack and cell prices

Re-created from BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals 

Battery technologies in development could open the door to widespread adoption of electric vehicles by cramming more energy into a cheaper, smaller package.

Why it matters: Consumers won't embrace electric vehicles until they cost about the same as (or less than) gasoline cars and provide a comparable driving range — around 300 miles between charges.

But at an average price of about $62,000, EVs are still too expensive for many, and the high cost of lithium-ion batteries is mostly to blame.

After falling for a decade, battery prices rose in 2022 because of higher raw materials costs.

What's happening: Scientists are trying to develop inexpensive, lightweight next-generation batteries that do it all — hold lots of energy, release power quickly, operate safely and last a long time.

Battery development, however, is a game of trade-offs. High performance on one criterion generally means lower performance on another.

A battery with higher "energy density" (meaning it's designed to store more energy) could overheat and catch fire, for example. 

The challenge is finding the right mix of materials and chemical processes to optimize performance across the board.

What to watch: Most of the industry is betting on solid-state batteries as that game-changing solution.

Solid-state batteries replace the gooey liquid electrolyte that carries lithium ions between the cathode and the anode with a thin ceramic or sulfide-based material that does the same job. 

These next-gen batteries are expected to store twice as much energy as today's lithium-ion batteries — potentially doubling the range of an electric car to 600 miles or more — and possibly recharge in one-third the time.

They'd also be lighter, cheaper and less likely to burst into flames, scientists say.

Many companies are working on the technology, including automakers such as Toyota and Nissan, battery giants Panasonic and Samsung, and startups including QuantumScape and Solid Power.

Yes, but: Despite encouraging lab results, the industry has yet to prove it can scale the technology for mass production, meaning solid-state batteries are still five or 10 years away from powering cars.

Meanwhile, better performance and lower costs can be squeezed from today's EV batteries in other ways, such as adding silicon to graphite anodes or shifting to pure "lithium-metal" anodes, both of which are in development.

For now, some carmakers, including Tesla and Ford, are turning to cobalt- and nickel-free lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, especially for their lower-priced EVs.

Although LFP batteries are cheaper and safer, they provide a shorter driving range than batteries made with cobalt and nickel.

As charging infrastructure improves, however, that shorter driving range might become less of an issue, some experts say.

"There's a prevailing thought that 300 miles is table stakes for the next generation of electric vehicles," says Mark Verbrugge, director of General Motors' Chemical and Materials Systems Laboratory.

"But what about a vehicle with only 200 miles that's two-thirds the cost and could be fast-charged in 15 minutes?"

The bottom line: Solid-state batteries are still the holy grail for EVs.

3. Inside the search for a better electric vehicle battery

Consumers won't embrace electric vehicles until the cost comes way down.

Battery technologies in development could open the door to widespread adoption of electric vehicles by cramming more energy into a cheaper, smaller package.Why it matters: Consumers won&#x27;t embrace electric vehicles until they cost about the same as (or less than) gasoline cars and provide a comparable driving range — around 300 miles between charges.

The rising demand for green tech is leading to a wave of new strategies to reduce the disproportionate impact of climate change on frontline communities across the U.S. 

Driving the news: These tech solutions are being created by diversely owned startups, despite racial and socioeconomic barriers to funding access in the venture capital ecosystem. 

The big picture: Climate impacts aren't distributed equitably. Black and Latino communities in the U.S. are disproportionately vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, which, in the case of heatwaves and extreme temperatures, hits low-income communities the hardest.

And the strategies to reduce the burden of climate change aren't always adopted equally — which makes existing disparities even worse.

For example, public officials are less likely to install EV charging stations in low-income neighborhoods, which leads to charging deserts in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods. That means they're less likely to share in the health benefits of electric vehicles.

Expensive adaptation technologies are another obstacle. The price tag attached to some clean energy solutions — which can be cost-saving — has made these historically inaccessible for low-income households.

Tackling some of these issues is the Upside Tech Alliance, a recently launched initiative led by startups Aclima, Promise, BlocPower and Bitwise Industries.

Aclima CEO Davida Herzl tells Axios that former President Obama helped inspire the collaboration when a dinner last year brought them all together. 

"He's like, 'Your journeys have a lot in common. You all want to serve the public. You all have cities and government as your customer, you're all worried about building meaningful solutions that actually change the game for communities that have been left behind,'" Herzl said. "'Why don't you guys team up?'" 

How it works: By incorporating flexible utility payments and retrofitting low-income housing units to lower energy costs, among other projects, the U.S.-based startups partner with local city leaders and governments to implement equitable emissions reductions and climate strategies.  

In Newark, N.J., Promise rolled out an interest-free payment plan program that's intended to keep households from being disconnected if they can't pay their surging utility bills.

The state of New York is working with Aclima to launch a program focused on measuring emissions block-by-block. It incorporates workforce training designed to provide underrepresented people, including those who were formerly incarcerated, with jobs in the sector.

4. Climate tech's parity challenge

Despite lack of funding, diversely owned startups are pioneering equity-based solutions to climate change.

The rising demand for green tech is leading to a wave of new strategies to reduce the disproportionate impact of climate change on frontline communities across the U.S. Driving the news: These tech solutions are being created by diversely owned startups, despite racial and socioeconomic barriers to funding access in the venture capital ecosystem.