Get-out-the-vote gets personal in Georgia

Transcript

ERICA PANDEY: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today!

It’s Tuesday, December 6th.

I’m Erica Pandey in for Niala Boodhoo.

Here’s what we’re covering today: A same-sex vs religious rights case at the Supreme Court. Plus, a major moment for global oil markets. But first, get-out-the-vote gets personal in Georgia. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

ERICA: Today, Georgia voters determine who will head to the US Senate – Democratic Senator Rafael Warnock or his Republican challenger Herschel Walker. Early voting has been record breaking with nearly 2 million votes cast as of yesterday. But those votes haven't all come easy as Axios’ Emma Hurt has been reporting. Hi Emma.

EMMA HURT: Hey, Erica.

ERICA: Emma, there's been a get out the vote tactic in Georgia called relational organizing. What is that and how does it work?

EMMA: Yeah, so this is a tactic that was really pioneered during the 2020 and 2021 Georgia Senate races, particularly with the Jon Ossoff campaign. And basically you get paid to kinda leverage your contact list with a campaign and they cross-reference it with the voter file, and it tells you which of your contacts hasn't voted, gives you suggestions about who to text when, and it's basically a way to like get paid to talk to your friends about politics. And the Ossoff campaign found it to be really effective. Stacy Abrams' campaign used it earlier this year and Senator Warnock's campaign is continuing to use it as well.

ERICA: Any signs of it being used on the Republican side?

EMMA: Not seeing that right now. What Herschel Walker's campaign has done that's new in the runoff has been able to leverage the canvassing absentee ballot chasing, data tracking infrastructure that enabled Brian Kemp's victory in November. Kemp spent $10 million building it himself. So now, Mitch McConnell-aligned Super PAC is funding all those people to work solely for Herschel Walker's campaign in the last four weeks. So that's, I mean, what they have on the Republican side is still very formidable for sure. But this is a Democratic tactic right now.

ERICA: How successful is relational organizing? Is it worth the money?

EMMA: You know, our colleague Lachlan Markay has been doing even deeper reporting on this, and what he's heard is that we can say that in the 2021 runoffs, these strategists say the tactic boosted turn up by nearly 4%. And in a state like Georgia, 4% is a lot. And the bigger picture on that is that both candidates have really upped their get out the vote efforts in this runoff, just cause it's four weeks, not a lot of time. And it's all about turnout.

ERICA: How ready are Georgians for this to be over? There has gotta be some fatigue setting in.

EMMA: Yeah, there is, and it's something I've been talking to people about. I think there is major fatigue with the ads and with the texts and all the door knocking and all of the things that come with being a battleground state baseline. And then you have it all, all over again and another high profile runoff within two years. And if we're gonna continue to be competitive, this is likely to keep happening. And there is no limit on the amount of money that campaigns have spent. I mean, my calculations have that all-in campaign and outside funding so far, which is not even inclusive of everything, it's an at least $100 has been spent per Senate ballot in November to get those votes. And that's just crazy. I think most voters would rather just have a check for $100 and not have to watch all of these ads.

ERICA: People have been pushing for a change to the election and runoff process in Georgia. What are the specific things they hope to change?

EMMA: One specific reform idea that has gotten a lot of bipartisan traction already is instant runoffs, which is kind of a form of rank choice voting, but only in the general where you rank your candidates. And then if nobody gets over 50% of the vote, it's all retabulated with the secondary preference in mind. I think it's something that the general assembly, I'm hearing, might very well try to make a move on in the near future in Georgia.

ERICA: So Emma, as we head into election day, how are the Walker and Warnock campaigns feeling about their chances?

EMMA HURT: The Warnock campaign is feeling cautiously optimistic about the early vote breakdown, seeing high turnout among black voters, in particular, young voters. But the Walker campaign, as Raphael Warnock said yesterday, has a path to win this for sure. And if there's a really big election day turnout that might favor Republicans, so nobody's taking anything for granted right now.

ERICA: That's Axios politics reporter, Emma Hurt. Thanks Emma.

EMMA: Great to talk to you, Erica.

A same-sex versus religious rights case at the Supreme Court

ERICA: The Supreme Court heard oral arguments yesterday in a same-sex discrimination case – one which could limit LGBTQ+ rights. Axios’ John Frank in Denver has the story.

JOHN FRANK: The case features a Colorado website designer who sued the state preemptively to challenge its anti-discrimination law. Lorie Smith says her Christian faith should allow her to refuse to create a wedding website for a same-sex couple. Colorado's Attorney General says that would violate a law that bars discrimination based on gender, sexual orientation, race and more.

The backstory, this is the second case from Colorado in five years to pit religious freedom against LGBTQ rights. The previous case of a Denver area baker, who refused to make a cake for a gay couple, was actually deciding the baker's favor, but the ruling was so technical that it left open this broader question at stake in the latest case. Monday, the court heard two hours of spirited arguments, and the conservative majority seems inclined to back the website designer, but the justices struggled to define the line between discrimination and personal values, with the questioning really reflecting the court's partisan split.

What we're watching is how broad the decision will go to either uphold or tear apart the state's anti-discrimination law and ones like it in many other states. A ruling in this case is expected by the end of June.

ERICA: That’s Axios Denver Reporter John Frank.

In a moment, new efforts to curb Russian oil profits.

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A major moment for global oil markets

ERICA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Erica Pandey in for Niala Boodhoo.

The US and its allies are trying to curb Russian oil profits with two moves that went into effect yesterday. The hope is to cut off funding for the war on Ukraine. Axios Markets Correspondent Matt Phillips is here with more on this new price cap and embargo.

So Matt, what exactly are these two new efforts?

MATT PHILLIPS: Yeah, there's kinda a two track system of new things that went into effect on Monday. One is an oil embargo from the European Union, the 27 nation economic block, that prohibits the buying of Russian crude. That's like the raw, unrefined petroleum product that gets made into stuff like diesel, fuel, or gasoline, or jet fuel or whatever. The second is what's really interesting, which is the G7, group of highly industrialized countries, the European Union and Australia, they're all getting together, and of course the United States is part of the G7, we're getting together and basically trying to enforce a price cap on Russian crude oil of $60 per barrel. And this has kind of never been tried before, and I argue it's a big deal for world markets.

ERICA: Why is that?

MATT: Well, global oil markets, they are based on the laws of supply and demand for sure. But they're also based on politics and political risks. You know, one of the major players in global oil markets is OPEC, the oil price cartel, that has a huge influence on setting world oil prices. Now, since OPEC was created in 1960, they've never really had an effective counterweight. There's never been a buyer's club, that is sort of a counterweight to the production cartel. So, you know, while this is not that, it does have some of the elements that could lead to that sort of coordination among oil price buyers in the future. And, so a lot of people are really interested in what the implications of this targeted price cap on Russian crude will be over the longer term.

ERICA: What else are you specifically watching for next after these new moves went into place?

MATT: Well, we're gonna be watching for any comments that come out of really important oil producers besides Russia, obviously Saudi Arabia, foremost among them. Beyond that, you know, there is just a very fraught series of decisions that OPEC is gonna be making over the next, you know, few months, half year, in terms of how they're gonna handle their oil production. The global economy, which is kind of thought of as the demand side for oil, is really kind of uncertain right now, largely because China is a lot less strong than many people had expected, largely due to their zero-Covid policies. So we're really gonna see how OPEC is looking at this potentially new force they're gonna deal with in terms of a unified buying side, sometime down the line versus the uncertainty of the global outlook in the shorter term.

ERICA: Matt Phillips co-authors the Axios Markets newsletter. Thanks, Matt.

MATT: Thank you.

ERICA: That’s all we’ve got for you today! You can reach our team at podcasts at axios dot com.

I’m Erica Pandey – thanks for listening - stay safe and Niala Boodhoo will be back with you tomorrow morning.

Harvard professor Khalil Gibran Muhammad and journalist Ben Austen are friends, one Black and one white, who grew up together in Chicago. As adults, Khalil and Ben are still best friends, but they know that interracial friendships aren't going to solve the problems of a divided country. Listen to “Some of My Best Friends Are,” wherever you get podcasts, for real talks about the absurdities and intricacies of race in America.