This year's stock market, the short version
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The interest rate surge hammered tech stocks this year, while an energy shortage — inflamed by the war in Ukraine — turned oil and gas shares into massive winners.
Driving the news: The first week of November was a microcosm of the markets this year, with tech stocks suffering mightily and energy powering ahead.
- Last week, the S&P 500 energy sector was the best-performing part of the blue-chip index, climbing 2.4%. (It's the only positive part of the index this year.)
- Tech shares — using the Nasdaq composite as a gauge — were down 5.7% last week.
- Tech-heavy sectors of the S&P 500, like the communications services sector — home to Alphabet and Meta — tumbled 7.4% during the week.
The big picture: Some are framing the divergence in market performance as something of an economic changing of the guard.
- A recent report by Goldman Sachs commodities analysts — who've distinguished themselves with some savvy calls on oil prices earlier this year — entitled "The Old Economy Takes its Revenge," spotlighted recent earnings reports from Exxon and Microsoft, in which the oil giant's cash flows overtook Microsoft's.
- They wrote, "In our view, these results are a pivotal moment for the broader economy as high commodity prices cannibalize earnings from other sectors as well as force interest rates higher, lowering valuations."
The kicker: "This past week has shown us how the Old Economy is starting to take its revenge on the New Economy," they wrote.
Yes, but: While that could be the case ... plenty of "old economy" sectors like airlines, automobiles, chemicals, metals and mining stocks all remain deep in negative territory this year.
- Automobiles and auto part stocks are actually doing worse than tech, down roughly 40%, according to the S&P 500 subindex that follows the industry.
The bottom line: The performance of the markets this year is a more straightforward story of energy stocks simply beating everything else.
