Oct 20, 2022 - Politics & Policy

Axios-Ipsos Latino poll: Warning signs for Dems

How Hispanic/Latino Americans say they would vote in the 2022 elections
Data: Ipsos; Note: Data rounded to nearest whole; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

Just weeks before the midterms, nearly one in four Latinos still didn't know how they'd vote, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Why it matters: The findings underscore Latinos' collective hold on the American swing vote — and Democrats' relatively modest advantage is an ominous sign for those who fear a further erosion of their party's support among this large, diverse ethnic group.

  • Inflation and crime remained by far the biggest worries for survey respondents. Abortion ranked significantly lower, and has not climbed since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

But, but, but: Democrats have some targeted advantages. Respondents support President Biden's student loan forgiveness and the Inflation Reduction Act by about 2-to-1 margins.

  • Four in five favor expanded background checks on 18-to-21-year-olds who want to buy a gun. Three in four favor extending restrictions on domestic abusers who can own guns to include dating partners as well as spouses or ex-spouses.

The intrigue: 57% opposed governors busing or flying migrants to other states, or to the nation's capital.

  • But respondents were all over the map when asked if states have an obligation to take in, house and educate migrants transported into their boundaries — 38% said yes, 27% said no, and 32% took neither position.
  • A majority (57%) said Biden should use executive authority to protect Dreamers, farmworkers and essential workers if Congress won't act.

Zoom in: 37% of respondents cited inflation and 36% cited crime or gun violence when asked to identify up to three of their top worries.

  • Just 12% cited abortion or access to abortion as a top concern. That's a gain of just 2 percentage points, less than the survey's margin of error, since the Supreme Court's June ruling — even as Democrats have sought to use the issue to ramp up registration and turnout among women.
  • Several other concerns outpaced abortion, including immigration (26%), climate change (25%), health care (20%), political extremism or polarization (17%), taxes (14%) and racial injustice (13%).
  • Just one-fourth of respondents said they were certain or almost certain to vote; one fourth said they were not registered to vote.

Clear majorities said it's time for both major parties to change and that President Biden (69%) and former President Donald Trump (73%) should not run again in 2024.

What we're watching: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' favorability continues to rise among Hispanic respondents in his home state — 51% now, compared to 39% last December.

  • California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom had a 55% favorable rating with Latino respondents in his home state, down slightly from 59% last December.
  • Nationally, President Biden was at 47%, Vice President Kamala Harris at 42% and former President Donald Trump at 27%.

What they're saying: "Latino Americans feel relatively cool toward both political parties," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs.

  • "While they give Republicans a slight advantage on being better on the economy, and Democrats on sharing their values, the fact is that roughly a quarter, or more, believe neither side is handling the issues they care about well. This makes them, in many ways, the swing voters of the 2022 election."
  • Read more in Thursday's edition of Axios Latino.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Latino Poll, in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, was conducted Sept. 30-Oct.8 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,005 Hispanic/Latino adults age 18 or older.

  • The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.
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