Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Republicans are competitive in several governors' races in blue states, even as they struggle in some of the typical battleground contests like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The big picture: If Republicans make inroads on Biden-friendly turf in November, it would be a sign that moderation still sells.
Driving the news: Republicans have put the gubernatorial races in Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon in play.
- The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has moved the Oregon governor's race into toss-up territory, reflecting the strength of Republican Christine Drazan's candidacy. Oregon Democrats are divided between progressive Democratic nominee Tina Kotek and Betsy Johnson, a more moderate candidate running as an independent. Oregon hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1982.
- A new Emerson College poll of the Nevada governor's race shows Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) tied with his Republican opponent, Joe Lombardo, at 40%. Some Republican officials now view Nevada as their best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held statehouse.
- And in New Mexico, an Emerson College poll finds Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham only holding a five-point lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti in a Democratic-friendly state. As Axios reported last month, Lujan Grisham has been beset with low approval ratings, staff upheaval and charges of hypocrisy.
Why it matters: Candidate quality matters. Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidates are losing badly in Pennsylvania and Michigan, states that are more GOP-friendly than the aforementioned battlegrounds.
- Gov. Doug Ducey carried Arizona by 14 points in the Democratic wave year of 2018, while Trump loyalist Kari Lake is tied in polls despite facing a more favorable political environment.
What we're watching: Blue-state victories for moderate Republicans could help boost the national prospects of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
- He's has been spending lots of political capital for these blue-state Republicans, while his rivals (including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump) are spending time boosting MAGA Republicans who could end up costing the party winnable races.