Sep 8, 2022 - Economy

Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect new bear market lows

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

As the summer rally sputters, top Wall Street analysts expect new lows for stocks.

Why it matters: The S&P 500 is already on track for its worst year since 2008, but these analysts suggest things may get much worse.

  • The S&P 500 is already down 16.5% in 2022.
  • The Nasdaq is down nearly 25%.

Context: Technically, the S&P 500 has been in a bear market since its Jan. 3 peak of 4,797, after which it fell nearly 24% before seeming to hit bottom in June and rebounding.

What they're saying: "We do not think the bear market is over," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note this week.

  • The analysts think the S&P — currently hovering around 3,980 — likely falls at least another 15%, to 3,400, during the fourth quarter.
  • The index could even collapse by 25%, falling to 3,000, if the economy slips into a recession, they added.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs stock market analysts called the June to August rally, in which the S&P rose more than 17%, a "bear market rally," in a note published yesterday.

  • "We expect further weakness and bumpy markets before a decisive trough is established," they wrote.

The bottom line: You might want to start averting your eyes from the old 401(k) statement again.

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