Charted: The partisan battle for statehouses
No more than five seats separate the majority and minority parties in three statehouses hosting elections in November — Arizona, Minnesota and Michigan, according to data from the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Why it matters: Republicans have dominated Democrats at the state level for over a decade, allowing them to exercise outsized power over policies governing abortion access, gun control, voting, public health and other hot-button issues.
By the numbers: Republicans have the fewest number of seats separating them from the Democratic majority in Minnesota (five seats), Nevada (nine seats) and Delaware (11 seats) statehouses.
- However, redistricting and other factors give Democrats the upper hand in both Nevada and Delaware, according to analysis by Crystal Ball's Louis Jacobson.
- Despite a 15-seat margin, Republicans are considered to have an opportunity to flip the Maine Statehouse.
Democrats have the best chance of flipping a statehouse this year in Michigan, where Republicans have just a three-seat buffer.
- Democrats only need to flip one seat in Arizona's Statehouse to split control with Republicans. But Jacobson points out that redistricting in the state will make that feat difficult and could even help Republicans gain seats in the lower chamber in November.