Jul 24, 2022 - Politics & Policy

GOP's new Hispanic angle

Elephant x's and o's on chalk board
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

House Republicans are targeting Democratic-held districts with sizable Hispanic populations, convinced that a shift in their voting preferences will help fuel a Republican wave for this year's midterms.

Why it matters: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.

Between the lines: The party's focus on the Hispanic vote deepened after now-GOP Rep. Mayra Flores of Texas won a Democratic-held district last month that contains the second-largest Hispanic constituency in the country.

  • Flores' district, centered on the U.S.-Mexico border, voted for President Biden by four points in 2020.

Zoom out: House Republicans boast a historically diverse recruiting class.

  • In Texas, Republicans nominated three Latina candidates in the Rio Grande Valley — Flores, running against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a new more-Democratic district; 2020 nominee Monica De La Cruz, running in an open seat; and former congressional aide Cassy Garcia, running against Rep. Henry Cuellar.
  • Republicans also are bullish on Juan Ciscomani, a top adviser to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey who’s running for an open House seat in Arizona; Yesli Vega, a Prince William County supervisor running against Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger; and Lori Chavez-Deremer, a mayor running in a bellwether Oregon district.

The NRCC notes that 29 of its 75 House targeted districts have a Hispanic population over 15%.

  • The list includes all three Democratic-held seats in Nevada (Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Stephen Horsford); the redrawn Phoenix-area seat of Rep. Greg Stanton; two Orange County battlegrounds held by California Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin; and even the New York district of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney.
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