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Jul 21, 2022 - Politics & Policy

House battleground poll hints at big GOP wave

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Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) with other House Republicans after the swearing-in ceremony for Rep. Mayra Flores last month. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot.

Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.

Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.

  • Biden's job approval sits at just 37%, with 61% disapproving of his performance.
  • 50% of voters approve of Trump — higher than in other recent polls — while 49% disapprove.

The poll also found a gaping disconnect between the priorities of Democratic and Republican voters.

  • Half of Republicans polled rated economic issues as their top priority in this year's midterms, with immigration a distant second at 16%.
  • For Democrats, just 26% rated economic issues as most important, with abortion (20%) and voting rights (13%) ranking close behind.
  • Respondents rated Republicans as the party best equipped to deal with economic concerns, crime and immigration, while Democrats held the advantage on abortion, health care and Social Security.

Between the lines: This is the latest in a string of surveys showing Democrats losing ground with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans.

  • The poll found Democrats only hold a three-point lead on the congressional ballot among Asian Americans over 50, and a five-point lead among Hispanics over 50.

Yes, but: In races in which Republicans nominate weak or extreme candidates, individual Democrats will have an opportunity to run ahead of their party.

Methodology: This poll interviewed 1,200 likely voters ages 18+ from July 5-12 in the 56 U.S. House districts that Cook Political Report rated as “lean” or “toss up” as of June 29, with a margin of error of ±2.83%.

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