Latino evangelical leader sees major voter shifts

• They are more politically moderate than white evangelicals on race, immigration and the economy but more conservative than Black and white college-educated progressive Democrats.

The big picture: Rev. Samuel Rodriguez Jr. leads the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, a group that represents more than 42,000 churches around the nation.

• The organization has pushed for immigration reform, and Rodriguez has advised leaders from both political parties, including former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
• Many of the group's member churches cater to Spanish-speaking immigrants from Central America, while others serve Latinos who have left the Catholic Church.

What he's saying: Rodriguez said recent elections, including Republican Mayra Flores' victory last week in South Texas and gains former President Trump made with Latinos in 2020, show a seismic political shift.

• "The Hispanic community is not what everyone assumed it would be: this unbelievable lock-in-step voting constituency that is an integral part of the Democratic Party."
• A combination of Democrats taking Latino voters for granted, the targeting of Latinos by Republicans in local races, and an increase in the number of Latino evangelicals are pushing Hispanics into new political territories, he said.
• It's what experts have been saying and what election results have shown in the past two years. Polls also show the Democratic party losing ground with Latinos, although it's not a mass exodus.

Yes, but: The surge in Hispanic evangelicals doesn't mean most Latinos will automatically shift from supporting Democrats to backing Republicans, Rodriguez said.

• "I would not necessarily come to the conclusion that it is this unbelievably strong, super-conservative constituency. I would argue it is now America's number one independent voting demographic."
• Plus, nearly half of all U.S. Latinos still identify as Catholic, according to the Pew Research Center.

On the economy: Inflation, rising interest rates, high gas prices, and the COVID-19 locked down have created more doubt among Latinos over how they fit into the U.S. economy, Rodriguez said.

• Echoing what other political consultants have said, Rodriguez argued that Democrats aren't speaking to the economic anxieties of Latinos while Republicans are.

On abortion: A Pew Research Center survey released last week showed that 40% of Latinos said abortion should be illegal in most or all cases — the highest among all ethnic groups.

• "We're the most pro-life community in America... The way Democrats are speaking about this issue is alienating some Latinos."

On LGBTQ+ rights: Rodriguez said evangelicals are very tolerant but don't believe teachers should talk about sex.

• Reality check: Educators say discussions about LGBTQ+ issues in schools are not about sex, but about gender and love. Some states now forbid teachers from mentioning that someone is gay.
• An Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo released in March found that 62% of those surveyed said they are comfortable around people who identify as LGBTQ.

On critical race theory: Rodriguez said Latino evangelicals may have issues with some of the premises of critical race theory but feel some Republican-led states have gone too far in banning civil rights discussions in schools.

• "We're both Billy Graham and Dr. King. We're both vertical and horizontal Christians. We're not married to the donkey or the elephant. We're married to the lamb."

The bottom line: The extremism in both parties has left moderate-leaning Latinos, many evangelicals, politically homeless, Rodriguez said.

• He added that Democrats are losing ground, but there's no guarantee Republicans will win over Latinos long-term if candidates don't "watch their rhetoric."

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