May 3, 2022 - Economy

Treasury-note yield briefly climbs above 3%

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — arguably the most closely watched number in financial markets — hit 3% briefly Monday, a milestone it's rarely crossed since 2011.

Why it matters: The surge in Treasury yields is a big reason the stock market has been miserable lately.

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury — known as the T-note — is a key determinant of borrowing costs for everything from corporate bonds to mortgages.

State of play: The recent push higher for T-note yields — less than six months ago it was below 1.50% — reflects increasing conviction in the bond market that the Federal Reserve is going to move quickly to crush inflation with much higher interest rates.

What's next: On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its next rate move, which most analysts think will be a half-percent hike.

  • But the path of both bonds and stocks will hang on how Fed chair Jerome Powell conducts himself in the post-announcement press conference — a must-see-TV event for markets geeks.
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