Apr 9, 2022 - Economy

Bank of America warns "recession shock" lies ahead

Illustration of a person in a suit on a downward sloping red arrow.

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

In an alert to clients this week, Bank of America strategists warned in blunt language: "'Inflation shock' worsening, 'rates shock' just beginning, 'recession shock' coming."

Why it matters: The ultra-tight job market and high inflation are two sides of the same coin, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin notes.

  • The super tight-job market is fueling higher wages and strong demand — which is why the Fed is going to have to move more aggressively than it has in decades to try to quash inflation.

Driving the news: The recession calls are about what might happen later this year or in 2023 — not a comment about current conditions.

  • A "Zeitgeist" section added these snappy client quotes: "can't make my mind up if it's recession or stagflation" and "recession now soooo consensus."
  • Deutsche Bank also warned of a downturn, saying in a research note on Tuesday that "we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession," per CNN.

The bottom line: The risk is that the cost of that inflation-fighting campaign is a recession.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to include Deutsche Bank's recession call.

Go deeper