Jan 5, 2022 - Politics & Policy

Wasserman: Redistricting turns into a happy surprise for Dems

Mike Allen

Illustration of the state of Georgia with changing districts within it. — Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

David Wasserman has seen enough. The litigation-strewn process for drawing new House lines for November's midterms will go on for months.

But Wasserman — the senior editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter who's so steeped in the intrigue his Twitter handle is @Redistrict — concludes in an analysis posted this morning, "Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash."

The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP's favor than the last decade's. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden's approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won't be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).

— Cook Political Report's David Wasserman

Between the lines: Wasserman writes that "the partisan distribution of seats before/after redistricting is only one way to gauge the process."

"Because Democrats currently possess the lion's share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain."

Go deeper: Read the analysis.

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Wasserman: Redistricting turns into a happy surprise for Dems

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