Jan 4, 2021 - Politics & Policy

New Republican poll shows statistical tie in Georgia

A vehicle in Macon, Ga., is seen carrying a banner for Republican Senate candidate Kelly Loeffler.
A banner for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler hangs from an old Army truck in Madison, Ga., on Saturday. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

The Democratic and Republican Senate candidates in Georgia are in a statistical tie heading into Tuesday's pair of runoff elections, according to a new poll conducted for a Republican super PAC.

Why it matters: In both elections, Democrats pulled ahead in early voting, putting pressure on Republicans to increase their turnout on Election Day to catch up. The tie poll suggests a jump ball in the races between Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

By the numbers: The Preserve America poll, conducted by Adam Geller, surveyed 500 likely voters over the weekend and included both cellphones and landlines. The survey had a margin of error of ±4.38 percentage points.

  • Perdue had 45% of the vote to Ossoff's 46%.
  • Loeffler also had 45% to Warnock's 46%.

The intrigue: The poll cast in stark relief how Democrats have banked early support: Some 54% of respondents said they had already returned their ballots.

  • Among early voters, Ossoff was up in his race over Perdue 54%-36%; and Warnock led Loeffler by a 54%-37% margin.
  • Among those who haven't voted, Perdue led 56%-38%; Loeffler had a 55%-36% advantage.
  • Turnout will be key in determining the winners and the resulting balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

Be smart: Half of the poll was conducted after the revelations on Sunday afternoon that President Trump called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and asked him to "find" enough ballots to declare him the winner in November's election.

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