Biden's nearly insurmountable math

• Pennsylvania, where Biden is ahead by just under 15,000 counted votes, could be the ballgame: If he wins there, he's president-elect.
• NBC's Chuck Todd gave a window into decision-desk thinking when he said on the extended "Today" show, just before 11 a.m., that the network had over 90% confidence Biden would win Pennsylvania — but needed to be at 99.5%.

After multiple decision desks call the race for Biden, expect him and Sen. Kamala Harris to appear and publicly establish themselves as the victors — no matter what President Trump is saying, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports from Biden HQ in Wilmington, Del.

• The two were expected to speak as soon as 8 p.m. ET tonight.

The event site — a Wilmington parking lot bedecked with American flags — buzzed with microphone checks and Secret Service activity.

• Harris will introduce Biden, and aides said she'll keep it short — this is Biden's moment, after his third presidential run.
• Biden is expected to hit familiar themes from his campaign: uniting the country, restoring the soul of the nation and moving past partisanship.

Trump stayed out of sight, with a few tweets. His campaign released a statement in his name that sounded like a concession, although past performance suggests that tone may not last long.

• "We believe the American people deserve to have full transparency into all vote counting and election certification, and that this is no longer about any single election," Trump said in the statement. "This is about the integrity of our entire election process."
• "We will pursue this process through every aspect of the law," he concluded. "I will never give up fighting for you and our nation."

The Trump campaign said it's confident the president will ultimately pull out a victory in Arizona, including in Maricopa County, the state's most populous area, AP reported.

• But he would also need to win most of the other remaining battlegrounds.