Nov 2, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report shifts 8 seats toward Democrats in final House forecast

Axios

The Cook Political Report shifted eight House seats toward Democrats — and projected that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15 seats — in the nonpartisan prognosticator's final 2020 forecast published Monday.

Why it matters: It highlights how President Trump's polling struggles at the top of the ticket are filtering down ballot, affecting Republicans across the country.

The state of the play: Three of the shifted seats are in Texas — and Cook expects at least one of them, the state's 24th congressional district, to flip to the Democrats this year.

Cook believes that there are six vulnerable Republican House seats in Texas, the most of any state in the country.
Texas has become this year's surprise swing state and has seen massive early voting turnout.

Cook's moves:

Ark.-02 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
N.J.-03 (Democratic incumbent): Lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
N.J.-05 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
N.Y.-18 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
Penn.-17 (Democratic incumbent): Lean democratic to likely Democratic.
Texas-10 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
Texas-24 (Republican incumbent): Toss-up to lean Democratic.
Texas-31 (Republican incumbent): Likely Republican to lean Republican.

The bottom line: "A combination of [Trump's] unpopularity in the suburbs, a fundraising disadvantage, and 32 open seats for the GOP to defend (to Democrats' dozen) has weighed down Republicans' prospects," writes Cook House editor Dave Wasserman.

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Cook Political Report shifts 8 seats toward Democrats in final House forecast

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