Nov 2, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report shifts 8 seats toward Democrats in final House forecast

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report shifted eight House seats toward Democrats — and projected that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15 seats — in the nonpartisan prognosticator's final 2020 forecast published Monday.

Why it matters: It highlights how President Trump's polling struggles at the top of the ticket are filtering down ballot, affecting Republicans across the country.

The state of the play: Three of the shifted seats are in Texas — and Cook expects at least one of them, the state's 24th congressional district, to flip to the Democrats this year.

Cook's moves:

  • Ark.-02 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
  • N.J.-03 (Democratic incumbent): Lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
  • N.J.-05 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
  • N.Y.-18 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
  • Penn.-17 (Democratic incumbent): Lean democratic to likely Democratic.
  • Texas-10 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
  • Texas-24 (Republican incumbent): Toss-up to lean Democratic.
  • Texas-31 (Republican incumbent): Likely Republican to lean Republican.

The bottom line: "A combination of [Trump's] unpopularity in the suburbs, a fundraising disadvantage, and 32 open seats for the GOP to defend (to Democrats' dozen) has weighed down Republicans' prospects," writes Cook House editor Dave Wasserman.

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