Oct 29, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Polls: Biden leads Latino voters in key battleground states

Photo of a Biden/Harris supporter holding up a sign in Spanish that urges people to vote for Biden

Biden supporters at a drive-in voter mobilization event in Florida. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/ via Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump among Latino voters in Texas, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, with the narrowest margin in Florida, according to a collection of state polls conducted by Telemundo.

Why it matters: Hispanic voters are a critical bloc in this year's election. Experts say the group is vital to winning the race, and community organizers have aggressively engaged in get-out-the-vote campaigns for both candidates.

By the numbers: Biden is significantly ahead of Trump in Arizona, Texas and Nevada. An average of the three states puts Biden at approximately 61% and Trump at 30%.

Yes, but: Undecided voters make up about 6%-7% of Latinos in each state, leaving room for Trump to catch up.

The big picture: Both candidates have made efforts to connect with the Latino community, though Trump has faced backlash over his controversial comments about Mexicans and undocumented immigrants.

  • Latino women and young Latino voters especially favor Biden.
  • Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among Cuban American voters in Florida.

Flashback: Hillary Clinton won 66% of the nationwide Latino vote in 2016, according to exit poll data. However, her share was lower than in 2012, when 71% of Latinos voted to re-elect Barack Obama.

The intrigue: The Telemundo polling asked about reopening the U.S. economy, rent moratoriums and states’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • 78% of Latino voters in Florida don’t believe they would lose their health insurance should the Supreme Court strike down the Affordable Care Act.
  • A majority of Latino voters in all four swing states said it’s too soon to reopen schools and businesses.

The bottom line: Though Trump trails Biden in these swing states, it’s no guarantee that Biden will win the Latino vote. Only time will tell how much they get out of their investment — or lack thereof — in the community.

Methodology: The polls were conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and have a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

  • The Arizona poll was conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 27. The Florida, Nevada and Texas polls were conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 26. In each state, a total of 500 registered Hispanic voters were interviewed.
  • Those interviewed were randomly selected from phone-matched voter registration lists in each state that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. All of those interviewed indicated they were likely to vote in the November election.  
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