Oct 24, 2020 - Politics & Policy
No spinning needle on Election Night
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The memory most likely to conjure Election Night 2016 nightmares for Democrats is The Needle, AP's David Bauder writes.
The Needle, a half-clock graphic by the N.Y. Times' Upshot, displayed in real-time the candidates' probability of victory as votes were counted.
- Its gyrations triggered anxiety for Hillary Clinton supporters, who frantically refreshed the page, and elation for Trump fans.
The Needle won't be back Nov. 3 — one change in the world of election probability gurus following the 2016 shock.
- The Times said in announcing its Election Day plans: "Given the changes in the ways voters cast their ballots this year, we anticipate that it may not be possible to declare a winner in a number of key states on election night."
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight used a number on Election Night four years ago (final forecast: 71% Clinton), but won't this year.
- Silver said the change had more to do with uncertainties created by the high volume of early voting this year than any failures in 2016: "I just think people need to be exceptionally careful."
