Oct 5, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Poll: Biden leads Trump by 8 points in Arizona

donald trump and joe biden at the presidential debate
Joe Biden and President Trump at a debate in Ohio. Photo: Jim Watson, Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump 49% to 41% in Arizona, according to a new New York Times-Siena College poll.

Why it matters: Arizona carries 11 electoral votes and hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for president since 1996. The results are essentially unchanged from a Times-Siena poll of the state last month, suggesting Trump remains in a deep hole with less than a month to go until the election.

By the numbers: Biden leads by 9% in Maricopa County, which houses 60% of the state's population in the capital of Phoenix and surrounding suburbs. 6% of likely voters polled statewide said they are still undecided.

Worth noting: In Arizona's closely watched Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly leads the incumbent Martha McSally 50% to 39%, according to the poll. In last month's survey, Kelly was up 50% to 42%.

Methodology: The poll was conducted on October 1-3, 2020 with 655 Arizona likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points

Go deeper: Cook Political Report moves Arizona from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in presidential race

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