Scoop: Mike Bloomberg's anti-chaos theory

• "If Biden wins Florida, it's much harder for Trump to falsely claim victory on election night," a Bloomberg adviser told me. "Florida is a toss-up, but winnable."

While Trump could win without what is now his home state, it'd be incredibly hard. If Biden were to pair a decisive Florida victory with a win up the coast in swing state North Carolina, we could know the new president quickly.

• Both those states traditionally report quickly (if Florida isn't tied!), and are on Eastern time. So Biden and Bloomberg are eying them as keys to a knockout.

Bloomberg's data agency, Hawkish, revealed its "Red Mirage" scenario to "Axios on HBO" last month — the fear that with Republicans voting heavily in persona and Democrats voting heavily by mail, the map could look pretty red on election night, even if Biden is ultimately the victor.

• Bloomberg's all-in bet on Florida is his strategy for keeping the "Red Mirage" a data model and not a reality.

Part of Bloomberg's plan is to put big money into Latino vote-by-mail mobilization ... targeted Hispanic radio, digital and get-out-the-vote efforts ... and Black and Latino groups that can help with ground game.

• Biden's softness with Latino voters is one of the biggest alarm bells that's ringing with otherwise confident Democrats.

Below: "Responsibility," from Priorities USA Action, the ad that begins the Blooomberg blitz.