Cook Political Report moves Arizona from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in presidential race

The state of play: Trump's performance in the state is largely driven by changing attitudes in Maricopa County, surrounding Phoenix, where about two-thirds of the state's voters come from, according to Cook.

• "Voters there, as in other suburban areas in and around big metro areas, have soured on Pres. Trump," Cook writes.
• Cook cited FiveThirtyEight's average of recent polls, which has Biden's lead in the state at 4.3 points.
• Trump is struggling with the all-important Latino vote in the state, garnering just 17% support compared with Joe Biden's 55%, according to a Cook survey out this week.

Worth noting: Two of the Trump's most vocal Republican critics, former Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, served in the Senate from Arizona.

• Only 73% of Arizona Republicans say they will definitely vote for Trump, with 9% saying they are probably or definitely voting for Joe Biden, according to the Cook survey.

Go deeper: Cook says Biden has Electoral College edge