Feb 5, 2020 - Economy

S&P predicts coronavirus will stabilize by April

The novel coronavirus outbreak has continued its global rampage, but experts are beginning to see signs of improvement in detection and treatment on the horizon.

Driving the news: S&P Global announced Tuesday it expects the crisis will "stabilize globally in April 2020, with virtually no new transmissions in May. Our worst-case projection holds that the virus stops spreading in late May, and optimistically in March."

  • "Growth should stabilize later in 2020 and recover through early 2021 as the temporary effect on activity wanes."
  • "Relief measures including tax cuts and subsidies are likely. "

Yes, but: S&P analysts caution "if the disease is not swiftly brought under control, slower economic growth would exacerbate already weaker fiscal performance in many parts of the Asia-Pacific."

  • "Risk aversion and tighter financial conditions could amplify the impact, including on investment."

The big picture: Sectors impacted by the outbreak include banking, property, gaming, hotels, retail, tourism and transport.

Don't sleep: Expectations for the outbreak's peak have already been moved back. Zhong Nanshan, who leads the special committee of China's State Committee on Health and is the epidemiologist who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003, predicted in January that coronavirus cases would hit their peak within 10 to 14 days of the initial outbreak.

Go deeper:

Go deeper