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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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President Trump speaking about tax cuts for American workers. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

"A group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession," AP economics writer Martin Crutsinger writes.

The big picture: Trump's recent tax cuts are providing a tangible boost to the economy in the short term, but economists fear the long-term effects from the cuts might trigger an economic recession.

  • The National Association for Business Economics says in its quarterly outlook that its panel of 45 economists "believe the positive effects from the Trump tax cuts will quickly fade after the first two years."
  • "Asked when the next recession might begin, two-thirds of the NABE economists saw one starting by the end of 2020, with 18% even more pessimistic, expecting the next downturn to begin by the end of 2019."

"The NABE economists are 'slightly less optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2018 than they were three months ago,' says NABE vice president Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council."

  • "Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trump's get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects."
  • Wow! "Three-fourths of the NABE panel believes that current trade policies will have a negative impact on the economy."

P.S. Wall Street Journal lead story, "Global Growth Loses Steam: Shift dims outlook for stocks as some investors turn to safer assets such as bonds." (Subscription)

  • But, but, but: "Hardly anyone expects a recession any time soon."

Go deeper

CDC lets child migrant shelters fill to 100% despite COVID concern

Intensive care tents at overflow shelter in Carrizo Springs, Texas. Photo: Sergio Flores/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control is allowing shelters handling child migrants who cross the U.S.-Mexico border to expand to full capacity, abandoning a requirement that they stay near 50% to inhibit the spread of the coronavirus, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The fact that the country's premier health advisory agency is permitting a change in COVID-19 protocols indicates the scale of the immigration crisis. A draft memo obtained by Axios conceded "facilities should plan for and expect to have COVID-19 cases."

8 Senate Democrats vote against adding $15 minimum wage to COVID relief

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Eight Democratic senators on Friday voted against Sen. Bernie Sanders' amendment to ignore a ruling by the Senate parliamentarian and add a $15 minimum wage provision to the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package.

The state of play: The vote was held open for hours on Friday afternoon — even after every senator had voted — due to a standoff in negotiations over the next amendments that the Senate will take up.

CDC: Easing mask mandates led to higher COVID cases and deaths

Customer at a supermarket chain in Austin, Texas. Montinique Monroe/Getty Images

Easing mask restrictions and on-site dining have increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, according to a study out Friday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Why it matters: The report's findings converge with actions from governors this week easing mask mandates and announcing plans to reopen nonessential businesses like restaurants.

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