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President Trump speaking about tax cuts for American workers. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

"A group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession," AP economics writer Martin Crutsinger writes.

The big picture: Trump's recent tax cuts are providing a tangible boost to the economy in the short term, but economists fear the long-term effects from the cuts might trigger an economic recession.

  • The National Association for Business Economics says in its quarterly outlook that its panel of 45 economists "believe the positive effects from the Trump tax cuts will quickly fade after the first two years."
  • "Asked when the next recession might begin, two-thirds of the NABE economists saw one starting by the end of 2020, with 18% even more pessimistic, expecting the next downturn to begin by the end of 2019."

"The NABE economists are 'slightly less optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2018 than they were three months ago,' says NABE vice president Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council."

  • "Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trump's get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects."
  • Wow! "Three-fourths of the NABE panel believes that current trade policies will have a negative impact on the economy."

P.S. Wall Street Journal lead story, "Global Growth Loses Steam: Shift dims outlook for stocks as some investors turn to safer assets such as bonds." (Subscription)

  • But, but, but: "Hardly anyone expects a recession any time soon."

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Key government agency says Biden transition can formally begin

General Services Administrator Emily Murphy. Photo: Alex Edelman/CNP/Getty Images

General Services Administrator Emily Murphy said in a letter to President-elect Joe Biden on Monday that she has determined the transition from the Trump administration can formally begin.

Why it matters: Murphy, a Trump appointee, had come under fire for delaying the so-called "ascertainment" and withholding the funds and information needed for the transition to begin while Trump's legal challenges played out.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Vaccines: Key information about the effective COVID-19 vaccines — Oxford and AstraZeneca's vaccine won't just go to rich countries.
  2. Health: U.S. coronavirus hospitalizations keep breaking recordsWhy we're numb to 250,000 deaths.
  3. World: England to impose stricter regional systemU.S. hotspots far outpacing Europe's — Portugal to ban domestic travel for national holidays.
  4. Economy: The biggest pandemic labor market drags.
  5. Sports: Coronavirus precautions leave college basketball schedule in flux.

Michigan board certifies Biden's win

Poll workers count absentee ballots in Detroit, Michigan on Nov. 4. Photo: Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Michigan Board of State Canvassers certified the state's election results on Monday, making President-elect Joe Biden's win there official and granting him the state's 16 electoral votes.

Why it matters: Republican Party leaders had unsuccessfully appealed to delay the official certification, amid the Trump campaign's failed legal challenges in key swing states.

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