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Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images

Trump campaign officials have been discussing a digital campaign to boost President Trump’s 2020 support among three key demographic groups: African Americans, Hispanics and suburban women, two sources familiar with the plan tell Axios.

Why it matters: These are the groups the president must make inroads with the most. Trump won in 2016 with less support from black and Hispanic voters than any president in at least 40 years, per Reuters. And in 2018, suburban women revolted against Republicans in the midterms, a shift that was widely seen as a direct rebuke of Trump.

  • "We have high confidence that we’ll make great inroads with key voters,” a senior Trump campaign official told Axios.

Examples of the planned messaging, per the official:

  • Across the board, the campaign plans to play up the strong economy and historic low unemployment.
  • For Hispanics: They'll emphasize that Trump supports school choice and expanding educational opportunities.
  • For African Americans: The campaign will tout that how Trump supports health care policies that protect patients with pre-existing conditions. They'll also play up the administration's success on criminal justice reform.
    • Reality check: The administration is actively arguing that the courts should strike down the Affordable Care Act, including its protections for pre-existing conditions.
  • For suburban women: They'll focus on how the "energy revolution" has made energy more affordable, creates jobs, and reduced carbon emissions. They'll also highlight how the president supports dedicating $500 million over the next 10 years to fund childhood cancer research and therapies.
    • Reality check: Presidents have very little direct sway over fuel prices, per Axios' Ben Geman. Meanwhile, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose 2.7% last year.

Examples of target areas:

  • Detroit, Mich.; specifically Oakland & Macomb Counties: Trump won blue-collar Macomb by 12 points in 2016, while Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Sen. Debbie Stabenow won it by narrow margins in 2018. Oakland was one of only eight counties Hillary Clinton took in 2016.
  • Phoenix, Ariz., specifically Maricopa County, voted Republican in every election since 1952, per Politico. But, in 2016, Trump won the county by just a narrow plurality.

The backdrop: Trump was elected in 2016 with just 8% of the black vote and 28% of the Hispanic vote, per Reuters. Though it's worth noting that he performed better among these groups than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

  • Among women, 53% of all white women chose Trump in 2016, but 94% of black women and 68% of Hispanic women chose Clinton, per the NYT.
  • During the 2018 midterms, white women split their vote evenly between Democrats and Republicans, per FiveThirtyEight. And among white women with a college degree, most voted for Democrats over Republicans — 59% to 39%.
  • "If the enthusiasm for Trump in rural and small-town America constituted the story after 2016, the revolt against him in the suburbs, led by female voters, has become the story of the 2018 elections," The Washington Post's Dan Balz writes. "The more you analyze the House results, the more the GOP’s suburban problem stands out."

The bottom line: Given his policies, rhetoric, Fox News obsession and Cabinet picks, Trump knows older, white men are probably the key to any win. He just can’t get his clock cleaned with every other group. 

Go deeper: Trump's 2020 map from hell

Go deeper

Updated 51 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director says number of U.S. Omicron cases "likely to rise" — Two years of COVID-19 — Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Data demonstrates most-vaccinated counties less vulnerable to worst of COVID — Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate.
  4. World: Vaccine mandates lose steam in the U.S. while Europe doubles downWHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

Vulnerable Democrats: Less Trump talk

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Vulnerable House Democrats are convinced they need to talk less about the man who helped them get elected: President Trump.

Why it matters: Democrats are privately concerned nationalizing the 2022 mid-terms with emotionally-charged issues — from Critical Race Theory to Donald Trump's role in the Jan. 6 insurrection — will hamstring their ability to sell the local benefits of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Bipartisan tributes flood in for "giant of the Senate" Bob Dole

Then-Vice President Joe Biden and former Sen. Bob Dole at an event put on by the World Food Program where he was awarded the first “McGovern-Dole Leadership Award” in December 2013. Photo: Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call

Republican and Democratic politicians, including former Senate colleagues, are sharing condolences and memories commemorating the life of Bob Dole, who passed away at 98 on Sunday morning.

The big picture: Dole, the Republican presidential nominee in 1996, was the longest serving Republican leader in the Senate until 2018, when current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell surpassed his record.