Nov 15, 2018

The warning signs for Republicans ahead of 2020

Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

With changing demographics across the country and waning support in the Midwest, President Trump and the GOP could face a tough slog in the 2020 presidential election, according to Doug Sosnik, a White House adviser to President Bill Clinton who is one of the best trend detectors in U.S. politics.

Why it matters: Sosnik projects that there could be more tossup states in the South and Southwest than in the Midwest — with almost twice the number of electoral votes at stake.

Sosnik's warning signs for Republicans:

  • "They are on the wrong side of history [and demographics] with a white male strategy."
  • "Mueller/Southern District [of New York]/congressional investigations:  What people miss is how disabling these investigations are for the president, as well as the White House staff. (Take it from me: I had six years of investigations while in the Clinton White House)."

His potential map for 2020:

Note: Nebraska and Maine split their electoral college votes according to statewide popular vote and the vote within each congressional district; Data: Doug Sosnik; Chart: Axios Visuals

Go deeper: A presidential map for the 21st century

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"No decision made" by Pelosi on sending impeachment articles

Pelosi and Schumer at a news conference last year. (Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

When the House of Representatives returns to work Tuesday, don't expect an immediate announcement by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate.

The latest: A leadership aide tells Axios no decision has been made and that it may be a couple of weeks before Democrats can understand the significance of new revelations about Ukraine-related information being withheld by the White House — and whether at least four Republican senators are concerned enough to join forces with Democrats and demand more disclosures as part of President Trump's trial.

Go deeperArrowJan 5, 2020

Sen. Van Hollen: Republicans are "deathly afraid" of impeachment fact witnesses

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told CBS News' "Face the Nation" Sunday that Republicans are "deathly afraid" of calling impeachment fact witnesses like former national security adviser John Bolton because their sworn testimonies would make it "harder for those senators to vote for acquittal."

Go deeperArrowDec 22, 2019

Which Democrats voted against Trump's impeachment

Graphic: Danielle Alberti, Lazaro Gamio/Axios Visuals

Only two House Democrats crossed party lines to vote to oppose both articles of impeachment against President Trump on Wednesday. Both of them are feeling the pressure of representing swing districts Trump won in 2016.

Why it matters: Dissent was low as dozens of other Democrats who represent districts that Trump won sided with impeachment, either voting their conscience or calculating it could be even politically riskier to vote no.

Go deeperArrowDec 19, 2019