Jan 30, 2019

Millennials and Gen Z will make up 37% of the 2020 electorate

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Reproduced from a Pew Research Center report; Chart: Axios Visuals

The youngest Americans — millennials and Generation Z — are set to exercise their political muscle in 2020, making up 37% of the electorate, according to a new study by Pew Research.

Why it matters: Younger generations are by far more racially and ethnically diverse and are more likely to be Democrats. But baby boomers remain the generation with the largest share of the voting-eligible population — though barely — and older generations have historically been more likely to turn out and vote.

  • In 2016, for example, boomers and other older generations accounted for 43% of eligible voters, but cast 49% of the ballots.

The big picture: For the first time, millennials will make up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in the last presidential election, even as the generation's numbers continue to grow due to immigration.

  • Yes, but: Generation Z is set to make up more than 10% of the 2020 electorate, surpassing the elderly Silent Generation for the first time. These youngest Americans have continued and deepened many of the political trends favored by millennials, and they are expected to be almost half non-white.

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Exclusive poll: Black Americans motivated by Trump to vote in 2020

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A majority of black Americans are more interested in voting in the 2020 presidential election than they were in 2016, according to a national survey of 1200 black voters and non-voters conducted by Third Way and the Joint Center.

Why it matters: Black voter turnout declined significantly in 2016 nationally and in key swing states, ultimately contributing to Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump. New details from focus groups and polling suggests that the motivation to remove Trump from office is firing up black Americans to head to the polls next November.

Go deeperArrowDec 30, 2019

The 2010s saw a fall in the number of American kids

Data: William H. Frey analysis of U.S. Census estimates released Dec 30, 2019; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

There are 1.1 million fewer children living in the U.S. today than there were at the start of the decade, according to an analysis of new Census data by the Brookings Institution's William Frey.

The big picture: The adult population grew by 8.8% in the 2010s. in the three previous decades, the child population increased. The past decade marks a pivotal moment as the U.S. ages and, as a result, family life is transformed — especially because Americans are waiting longer to have children and having fewer of them.

Go deeperArrowJan 2, 2020

Bloomberg argues that early focus on Iowa and New Hampshire benefits Trump

Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Mike Bloomberg wrote Monday in a CNN op-ed that Democrats are benefiting President Trump with their focus on Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote for president, arguing they do not represent the party's electorate.

Why it matters: Bloomberg wrote that, if elected, he would work with state party leaders to "re-order the primary calendar in ways that better reflect our diverse electorate and channel more resources into the states we actually need to win in November."

Go deeperArrowJan 13, 2020