Nov 15, 2018

The warning signs for Democrats ahead of 2020

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

With a crowded 2020 presidential field and an unpopular president who still manages to get his voters to the polls, Democrats face unique challenges in the 2020 presidential election, according to Doug Sosnik, a White House adviser to President Bill Clinton who is one of the best trend detectors in U.S. politics.

The big problem, based on 2016: "The president's voters don't always admit to pollsters that they like him. And he ran better in tossup states than his national average."

Sosnik's warning signs for Democrats:

  • "There is no obvious candidate or even close to an obvious candidate. That's a huge problem."
  • "It will not, even under the best of circumstances, be easy to take on candidate Trump. He relishes the fights."
  • "The Democrats cannot, under any circumstances, allow the anti-Trump vote to splinter, which could enable Trump to get re-elected despite a majority of Americans opposing his presidency."

His potential map for 2020:

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Note: Nebraska and Maine split their electoral college votes according to statewide popular vote and the vote within each congressional district; Data: Doug Sosnik; Chart: Axios Visuals

Go deeper: A presidential map for the 21st century

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Updates: George Floyd protests continue past curfews

Protesters on Tuesday evening by the metal fence recently erected outside the White House. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Protests over the death of George Floyd and other police-related killings of black people continued Tuesday night across the U.S. for the eighth consecutive day — prompting a federal response from the National Guard, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.

The latest: The Army moved 1,600 soldiers from out of state into D.C. area, the Defense Department confirmed in a statement Tuesday. Protesters were still out en masse after curfews began in cities including Washington, D.C., New York City, Los Angeles and Portland.

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Election official at a polling place at McKinley Technology High School in Washington, D.C. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

In the midst of a global pandemic and national protests over the death of George Floyd, eight states and the District of Columbia held primary elections on Tuesday.

Why it matters: Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, needs to win 425 of the 479 delegates up for grabs in order to officially clinch the nomination. There are a number of key down-ballot races throughout the country as well, including a primary in Iowa that could determine the fate of Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).

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Rep. Steve King. Photo: Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images

State Sen. Randy Feenstra defeated incumbent Rep. Steve King in Tuesday's Republican primary for Iowa's 4th congressional district, according to the Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: King's history of racist remarks has made him one of the most controversial politicians in the country and a pariah within the Republican Party.