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Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Group has a stark reminder of one of the biggest 2020 issues not named Donald Trump: There are 13 House Republicans who are women (out of 197 — 7%), and 14 House Republicans named Greg or Mike.

Why it matters: "Perhaps the biggest variable in 2020 will be the suburbs," Krueger writes. "Particularly to win back the House, the GOP will have to staunch the bleeding in the suburbs."

The big picture: A big key to that is improving with women, where Krueger says the GOP faces "not so much a gender gap as a gender chasm."

  • Hillary Clinton won women 54% to 42%, while Trump took 53% of white women voters.
  • In last year's midterms, the WashPost's Dan Balz saw a "revolt among suburban women ... that played out in district after district."
  • "We’ve got to address the suburban women problem, because it’s real," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Fox News on Election Night 2018.

Between the lines: Another GOP impediment in suburbs is racial diversity, as the country grows more non-white. National Journal's Josh Kraushaar frames it bluntly:

  • "As Democrats have rapidly diversified their ranks in the last several elections, Republicans have grown more homogeneous."
  • "Only 11 of the 255 Republican members of Congress are nonwhite."

What's next: Republican leaders are belatedly paying more attention, and National Journal's Ally Mutnick reports that help may be on the way (subscription):

  • Nearly 100 women have already talked to House Republican officials about running, or have publicly declared interest.
  • A healthy number of early GOP recruits are women and candidates of color.

Be smart: Republicans are on track to field an all-white-male ticket against the most diverse Democratic field in history. 

Subscribe to Axios AM/PM for a daily rundown of what's new and why it matters, directly from Mike Allen.
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Go deeper

McConnell: Trump "provoked" Capitol mob

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Tuesday that the pro-Trump mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 was "provoked by the president and other powerful people."

Why it matters: Trump was impeached by the House last week for "incitement of insurrection." McConnell has not said how he will vote in Trump's coming Senate impeachment trial, but sources told Axios' Mike Allen that the chances of him voting to convict are higher than 50%.

41 mins ago - Politics & Policy

GOP leaders skip Trump sendoff in favor of church with Biden

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Congressional leaders, including House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, will skip President Trump's departure ceremony in Maryland tomorrow morning in favor of attending mass with incoming President Joe Biden ahead of his inauguration, congressional sources familiar with their plans tell Axios.

Why it matters: Their decision is a clear sign of unity before Biden takes the oath of office.

43 mins ago - World

U.S. declares China's actions against Uighurs "genocide"

A protester in London. Photo Hasan Esen/Anadolu Agency via Getty

With just one day left in President Trump's term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has officially determined that China's campaign of mass internment, forced labor and forced sterilization of over 1 million Muslim minorities in Xinjiang constitutes "genocide" and "crimes against humanity."

Why it matters: The U.S. has become the first country to adopt these terms to describe the Chinese Communist Party's gross human rights abuses in its far northwest.