Mar 30, 2019

2020 election polls: Pete Buttigieg’s surge is the biggest polling story of the week

Pete Buttigieg and his husband Chasten Glezman. Photo: Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images

The biggest polling story of this week centers around Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, as the 37-year old Afghanistan war veteran picked up his best national result yet with a 4% tally in the Quinnipiac Poll.

Why it matters: "A jump of 3 points may not seem like a lot, but, because the margin of error shrinks significantly the closer you get to 0, the move from 1% to 4% is likely statistically significant," CNN's Harry Enten notes.

By the numbers: This week's new polls showed a pretty stable race.

  • Quinnipiac: Biden (29), Sanders (19), O'Rouke (12), Harris (8), Buttigieg and Warren (4), Booker and Klobuchar (2), Castro and Hickenlooper (1)
  • Morning Consult: Biden (35), Sanders (25), Harris and O'Rouke (8), Warren (7), Booker (4), Klobuchar and Buttigieg (2), Gillibrand (1)

Flashback: At this stage of the 2015 GOP presidential primary, Donald Trump wasn't even in the polling average:

  • Tied at 1) Jeb Bush and Scott Walker; 3) Ben Carson; 4) Mike Huckabee; 5) Rand Paul.

Between the lines: "[C]andidates who receive more attention from the media are likely to receive more interest in [Google] searches. That's not the case for Buttigieg," CNN writes.

  • "Buttigieg is receiving a lot of search interest on Google ... More people have searched his name in the past two weeks than the prior 93 weeks combined."
  • "When you take into account Buttigieg's lack of name recognition with his current upturn, it suggests that he has a lot of room to grow."

The bottom line: "You Google a person because you want to learn more about them, not necessarily because you’re already sold on voting for them," FiveThirtyEight election analyst Nathaniel Rakich wrote.

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 1,014,673 — Total deaths: 52,973 — Total recoveries: 210,335Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 244,678 — Total deaths: 5,911 — Total recoveries: 9,058Map.
  3. 2020 updates: The Democratic National Committee said its July convention will be postponed until August because of the coronavirus. A federal judge declined to delay Wisconsin's April 7 primary election.
  4. Jobs latest: Coronavirus unemployment numbers are like a natural disaster hitting every state.
  5. Public health latest: Anthony Fauci called for a nationwide stay-at-home order. FDA allows blood donations from gay men after 3-month waiting period, citing "urgent need."
  6. Business latest: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said oil companies are eligible for aid from new lending programs the Federal Reserve is setting up, but not direct loans from his department.
  7. U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt: Navy removes captain of aircraft carrier who sounded alarm about coronavirus.
  8. 1 future thing: In developing countries, consequences of COVID-19 could be deeper and far more difficult to recover from.
  9. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  10. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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CNN: Fauci says U.S. should issue nationwide stay-at-home order

Dr. Anthony Fauci listens to President Trump speak during a briefing on April 1. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Trump administration should implement a stay-at-home order for the country, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a CNN town hall on Thursday.

Why it matters: The recommendation stands in contrast to President Trump's calls for "flexibility." Nearly 4o states have issued stay-at-home orders to promote social distancing as a way to combat the novel coronavirus — but the orders vary in strictness and duration.

Go deeperArrow20 mins ago - Health

World coronavirus updates: Confirmed cases top 1 million

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens and confirmed plus presumptive cases from the CDC

Novel coronavirus infections have surpassed the 1 million mark after "near exponential growth" that's reached "almost every country," World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday.

The big picture: Policy responses to the global coronavirus crisis have been every-country-for-itself and — in the case of the U.S. and China — tinged with geopolitics. But, the scientific work underway to understand the virus and develop a vaccine has been globalized on an unprecedented scale.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 47 mins ago - Health