Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

A huge challenge for 2020 candidates will be navigating these tandem trends: Day-to-day life on the globe is better than at any time in history, yet the heartland worries that elected President Trump haven't been solved.

The big picture: It's a fact that humans are living longer, healthier, safer, more comfortable lives.

Several journalists have recently made a similar case:

  • Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip started the year with the headline, "The World Is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better."
    • "If we can solve global poverty, we can solve other problems like climate change," Ip wrote. "If you spent 2018 mainlining misery about global warming, inequality, toxic politics or other anxieties, I'm here to break your addiction with some good news: The world got better last year."
  • NY Times columnist Nick Kristof made a related point: "Why 2018 Was the Best Year in Human History!"
    • "Never before has such a large portion of humanity been literate, enjoyed a middle-class cushion, lived such long lives, had access to family planning or been confident that their children would survive," Kristof wrote. "Let’s hit pause on our fears and frustrations and share a nanosecond of celebration at this backdrop of progress."
  • And the cover of yesterday's Washington Post Business section headlined a story about coming space milestones, "2019 is shaping up to be a stellar year."
    • "More exploration, human spaceflight and tourism opportunities appear primed for takeoff."

All that euphoria is based on data and reality. But it sounds tone-deaf if you're part of the majority of America, which isn't enjoying the escalating affluence inside the bubbles along the coasts.

Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass — whose most recent book, "A World in Disarray," sends a very different message — tells me that the super-optimists are fooling themselves: "[T]he trends are bad ... And third, global security is eroding."

Haass said the many examples "where things are getting worse is much more extensive and significant." He rattled off quite a list:

  • "Intrastate conflict is worse than ever given Yemen, Syria, Libya, Venezuela."
  • "Democracy is in a global recession."
  • "We are highly vulnerable to new infectious diseases and bacteria ... that are resistant to antibiotics. Non-communicable diseases are way up."
  • "Climate change is already having serious effects and much more will come sooner than expected even if we get serious about combatting it, which we are not."
  • "Cyberspace is a new arena of conflict."
  • "North Korea is not denuclearizing."
  • "Great power rivalry is returning after a hiatus."
  • "U.S.-Russia arms control agreements are unraveling. "
  • "Aggression has returned to Europe, populism to Latin America, and the Middle East shows no signs of stabilizing."
  • "Nearly 1 out of every 100 people in the world (65 million) is either a refugee or internally displaced."
  • "U.S. and global debt is at an all-time high."
  • "New technologies are emerging that will displace millions of workers, and the jobs that will be created are either not as good or require skills the workers lack."
  • "And the principal architect and builder of post-WWII international order [the U.S.] has largely abdicated."

Here's how Axios future editor Steve LeVine put it when I asked him about this conundrum: "The trouble is that these very long arc analyses look mindless against the chaos and unhappiness in front of all our eyes."

  • "A better description of the trend would be, 'Long-term betterment, with ultra-wild swings into the abyss.'"
  • "We have many profoundly serious problems to solve before we can comfortably embrace Steven Pinker's thumbs-up to the human race's current condition."

Be smart: Howard Wolfson — who advised Hillary Clinton in her first presidential campaign, and has spent a lot of time thinking about the country as he revs up for a potential run by Mike Bloomberg — warns that the loss of opportunity in major swaths of the U.S. is "more relevant to Americans than the rise of living standards in the developing world or space exploration."

  • "People are angry and anxious," Wolfson said. "Good luck running on the notion that things are better than they think — that was, in part, Hillary’s message — and it fell flat in MI, PA and WI."
  • "The real question is whether or not someone can channel that anxiety in a productive and optimistic way, with a real plan to make things better."

Go deeper:

Subscribe to Axios AM/PM for a daily rundown of what's new and why it matters, directly from Mike Allen.
Please enter a valid email.
Please enter a valid email.
Server error. Please try a different email.
Subscribed! Look for Axios AM and PM in your inbox tomorrow or read the latest Axios AM now.

Go deeper

Column / Harder Line

New England power fight foreshadows divisive clean energy future

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

It wasn’t his first choice, but Sean Mahoney isn’t fighting a 150-mile proposed power line sending Canadian hydropower to New England as part of the region’s climate-change goals.

Why he matters: Mahoney, a senior expert at the nonprofit Conservation Law Foundation who lives in Maine, is seeking to compromise in a bitter battle over the proposal. Expect more fights like this as President Biden and other political leaders pursue zero-carbon economies over the next 30 years.

Mike Allen, author of AM
9 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden adviser Cedric Richmond sees first-term progress on reparations

Illustration: "Axios on HBO"

White House senior adviser Cedric Richmond told "Axios on HBO" that it's "doable" for President Biden to make first-term progress on breaking down barriers for people of color, while Congress studies reparations for slavery.

Why it matters: Biden said on the campaign trail that he supports creation of a commission to study and develop proposals for reparations — direct payments for African-Americans.

Cyber CEO: Next war will hit regular Americans online

Any future real-world conflict between the United States and an adversary like China or Russia will have direct impacts on regular Americans because of the risk of cyber attack, Kevin Mandia, CEO of cybersecurity company FireEye, tells "Axios on HBO."

What they're saying: "The next conflict where the gloves come off in cyber, the American citizen will be dragged into it, whether they want to be or not. Period."