Nov 27, 2019 - World

Only poll to predict 2017 U.K. election result forecasts huge Boris win

Boris Johnson

Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is on pace to win a significant majority in the U.K.'s high-stakes election on Dec. 12, according to a major poll of 100,000 voters conducted by YouGov.

Why it matters: The so-called MRP poll, which takes local factors into account to provide a highly detailed prediction, was the only one to accurately predict that Theresa May would lose her majority in the shock 2017 election. If Johnson does indeed earn a majority of 68 seats, as the poll projects, he would finally be able to pass his Brexit deal and take the U.K. out of the European Union — 3.5 years after the 2016 referendum.

Yes, but: The margins of victory are below 5% in at least 30 seats projected to be carried by the Conservatives. There are also still two weeks left in the election campaign, and as demonstrated by this week's unprecedented intervention against the Labour Party by Britain's chief rabbi, anything can happen.

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