Jul 20, 2019 - Politics & Policy

How higher turnout could help Trump in 2020

President Trump

President Trump walks out of the White House before departing for New Jersey on Friday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Higher turnout could help President Trump in 2020, even though his approval ratings are "under water" explains the New York Times' Nate Cohn.

"It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points."
— Nate Cohn

But here's the buried treasure — why huge turnout won't necessarily benefit Dems:

  • "[T]he major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters ... — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states."
  • "The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters ... — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states."

Why it matters: "If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close," writes Cohn.

  • "Texas ... would emerge as the tipping-point state."
  • "Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ... would barely budge."

The bottom line: "[H]igher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote."

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