May 27, 2019 - Politics & Policy

3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020

Axios

President Trump is served a baked potato with butter in Tokyo, while dining with Melania Trump, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie Abe. (Photo: Kiyoshi Ota/Pool/Getty)

Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."
"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."
"Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College."

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3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020

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