Trump's self-inflicted slump

Yesterday was a devastating day for President Trump as he heads into his reelection campaign and an era of divided government.

Why it matters: He blinks; he disappoints the people who still love him; he gets no credit for reopening the government, given he already took credit for the shutdown; and we’re back where we started after 35 days of pointlessness.

The big picture: The shutdown not only wasted a month of Trump's presidency, but it accelerates a months-long losing streak:

• Trump is being outfoxed and outplayed by Speaker Pelosi:
• He ended the shutdown without getting anything obvious in return, after caving earlier in the week to her refusal to hold the State of the Union address in the House chamber.
• "Pelosi 2, Trump 0," a senior administration official instantly texted me.
• Drudge's banner, with a Trump pic: "WALLED IN."
• Swan tweeted: "A former White House official texts me, unsolicited: 'Trump looks pathetic...he just ceded his presidency to Nancy Pelosi.'"
• Maggie Haberman tweeted: "Not only did Trump alienate moderates with a shutdown, he upset his core 35 percent by caving — and, most significantly for 2020, did it all as Democrats held together on a major issue fight."
• Yesterday's indictment of Roger Stone references "senior Trump Campaign officials," "a senior Trump campaign official" and "a high-ranking member of the Trump Campaign":
• A "senior Trump Campaign official was directed to contact STONE about any additional [WikiLeaks] releases and what other damaging information [WikiLeaks] had regarding the Clinton Campaign."

• The midterm results left Trump weaker in battleground states than many people in his orbit seem to realize.
• As Jim VandeHei and I pointed out in November: "[A]ll the big trends are working against Trump and the GOP."
• Trump's election and Year 1 juiced the record bull run, but the stock market wobbled and dipped in Year 2:

Be smart: An adviser to top Republicans told me this week's debacle "rendered Trump impotent."

• "Total surrender," the adviser said. "Disorganized, disoriented and now disrespected."
• "The Senate Rs were about to cut and run. He had no exit ramp."
• "At least it got Stone off the top of the news."