Oct 30, 2018 - Politics & Policy

What the 2006 and 2010 midterms can tell us about 2018

A "Vote" sign at a voting center

Portland voters casting their ballots in 2010. Photo: John Ewing/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman crunched the numbers from the "wave" elections in the 2006 and 2010 midterms, and found that if things broke the same way in 2018, Democrats would net nearly 40 seats in the House.

Between the lines: Wasserman found the party not in power in those years saw these averages:

  • 100% of their party's seats rated by Cook as "lean," "likely," or "solid" in their favor.
  • 57% of the "toss up" seats.
  • 19% of the seats rated "lean" toward the opposite party.
  • 9% of the seats rated "likely" toward the opposite party.
  • And none of the "solid" seats favoring the other party.

Be smart: "There are a few reasons to doubt they'll break in the same pattern as '06/'10," Wasserman tweets:

  • Republican voters "are far more engaged in '18 than they were in '06 or Dems were in '10."
  • There's "far more polling this year, giving us more opportunities to 'diagnose' R problems. Still, a few surprises likely."
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