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Sep 20, 2018 - Politics & Policy

New data: Democrats crushing Republicans in 2018 elections

Neal Rothschild
Note: The 2018 data is preliminary through Sept. 12 and excludes runoffs, special elections and candidates who ran unopposed. Prior data includes unopposed candidates if they were on the ballot. Louisiana will hold their party primaries on Nov. 6 followed by a general election on Dec. 8; Data: Federal Election Commission (1998 to 2016) and Associated Press (2018); Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios
Note: The 2018 data is preliminary through Sept. 12 and excludes runoffs, special elections and candidates who ran unopposed. Prior data includes unopposed candidates if they were on the ballot. Louisiana will hold their party primaries on Nov. 6 followed by a general election on Dec. 8; Data: Federal Election Commission (1998 to 2016) and Associated Press (2018); Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Riding a surge of enthusiasm in opposition to President Trump, more Democrats turned out in the primaries for House elections than Republicans this year — the first time that has happened since 2008.

Why it matters: 2008 was the last time Democrats won a majority in the House. They lost it in 2010, when Republican primary turnout skyrocketed and Democratic turnout plummeted — the reverse of what's happening now.

What's next: David Brady, electoral politics expert and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, predicts around a 7% Democratic turnout advantage in November driven by women, and particularly Independent women.

  • Meantime, Republicans are trying to energize their voters, since Republican National Committee polling suggests a majority of Trump voters don't believe Democrats could win the House, per Axios' Jonathan Swan.
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