Aug 10, 2018 - Politics & Policy

By the numbers: Trump’s coalition was broader than you think

President Trump speaking in front of a crowd and an American flag backdrop at a rally.

Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

A "sizable share" of President Trump's large base had doubts when they voted for him, and continue to have reservations, New York Times' Nate Cohn and Alicia Parlapiano report, using data from Pew’s American Trends Panel.

Why it matters: This is an important factor to take into consideration as we approach November's election, Cohn and Parlapiano report. How the Republicans fare in the midterm elections could be decided "by voters at the edge of Mr. Trump's coalition" — so it's important to understand how broad that is.

  1. "A small but meaningful number of his voters, particularly women, appear to have soured on him since the election."
  2. "[T]he midterms could be decided by ... female, college-educated or nonwhite Trump supporters, who are somewhat likelier to harbor reservations about the president. They may have been reluctant to back him, but they were still essential to his 2016 victory and are essential to the G.O.P.’s chances today."
  3. "Trump won the presidency [for] one big reason: white voters without a college degree. They put Mr. Trump over the top in ... Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan."
  4. But just "33 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters were white men without a college degree. A majority of Mr. Trump’s supporters defy the stereotype: They were either women, nonwhite or college graduates (or some combination)."
  5. "47 percent of Mr. Trump’s voters were women. And ... he ... won 44 percent of voters making more than $150,000 per year, ... and nearly 40 percent of college-educated white voters."

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