Sep 4, 2018

The Senate races where Trump approval is losing ground

Photo: Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

President Trump's approval ratings have declined in all but one state with a competitive 2018 Senate race, but he's only below 50% in four of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, according to Morning Consult's monthly tracking poll.

Why it matters: To win the Senate — a goal that's less likely than winning the House — Democrats would need to win 14 of these 17 races. And with a packed fall campaign schedule, Trump plans to make the midterms more, not less, of a referendum on him.

Note: Includes races categorized as "Likely", "Lean" and "Tossup" by Cook Political Report as of Aug. 31. Data: Morning Consult and Cook Political Reports; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Among the races classified by Cook Political Report as "likely" Democrat or Republican, "lean" Democrat or Republican, or "tossup":

  • Trump has lost the most ground since inauguration in Arizona, Florida, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
  • Of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, he is below 50% approval in four of them (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and at 50% in two others (North Dakota and Florida).
  • He's above 50% in the rest, and soaring at 63% approval in West Virginia.

The bottom line: Trump's approval ratings are well below 50% nationally — and that's the level where the president's party usually loses more congressional seats in midterm elections. But the state-by-state map shows us why the Senate isn't as vulnerable as the House.

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California is projected to lose a congressional seat for the first time next year, while states President Trump won such as Texas and Florida will likely gain seats, according to an analysis of new Census data by the Brookings Institution's William Frey.

Why it matters: It only takes a handful of seats to shift a party's power in Congress for a decade. The new data underscores the need for an accurate 2020 Census count, especially with changing demographics in states with booming populations such as Florida, Texas and Arizona.

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Trump impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress

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The big picture: The legislative ending seems clear — he's headed for acquittal in the Senate as early as next month and won't be removed from office. But this seals his place in history.

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"No decision made" by Pelosi on sending impeachment articles

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The latest: A leadership aide tells Axios no decision has been made and that it may be a couple of weeks before Democrats can understand the significance of new revelations about Ukraine-related information being withheld by the White House — and whether at least four Republican senators are concerned enough to join forces with Democrats and demand more disclosures as part of President Trump's trial.

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