Photo: Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

President Trump's approval ratings have declined in all but one state with a competitive 2018 Senate race, but he's only below 50% in four of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, according to Morning Consult's monthly tracking poll.

Why it matters: To win the Senate — a goal that's less likely than winning the House — Democrats would need to win 14 of these 17 races. And with a packed fall campaign schedule, Trump plans to make the midterms more, not less, of a referendum on him.

Expand chart
Note: Includes races categorized as "Likely", "Lean" and "Tossup" by Cook Political Report as of Aug. 31. Data: Morning Consult and Cook Political Reports; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Among the races classified by Cook Political Report as "likely" Democrat or Republican, "lean" Democrat or Republican, or "tossup":

  • Trump has lost the most ground since inauguration in Arizona, Florida, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
  • Of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, he is below 50% approval in four of them (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and at 50% in two others (North Dakota and Florida).
  • He's above 50% in the rest, and soaring at 63% approval in West Virginia.

The bottom line: Trump's approval ratings are well below 50% nationally — and that's the level where the president's party usually loses more congressional seats in midterm elections. But the state-by-state map shows us why the Senate isn't as vulnerable as the House.

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 12,009,301 — Total deaths: 548,799 — Total recoveries — 6,561,969Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 3,053,328 — Total deaths: 132,256 — Total recoveries: 953,420 — Total tested: 37,532,612Map.
  3. Public health: Houston mayor cancels Republican convention over coronavirus concerns Deaths are rising in hotspots — Déjà vu sets in as testing issues rise and PPE dwindles.
  4. Travel: United warns employees it may furlough 45% of U.S. workforce How the pandemic changed mobility habits, by state.
  5. Education: New York City schools will not fully reopen in fallHarvard and MIT sue Trump administration over rule barring foreign students from online classes.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: A misinformation "infodemic" is here.

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

Photo: Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

7 hours ago - Health

Fighting the coronavirus infodemic

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

An "infodemic" of misinformation and disinformation has helped cripple the response to the novel coronavirus.

Why it matters: High-powered social media accelerates the spread of lies and political polarization that motivates people to believe them. Unless the public health sphere can effectively counter misinformation, not even an effective vaccine may be enough to end the pandemic.