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Photo: Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

President Trump's approval ratings have declined in all but one state with a competitive 2018 Senate race, but he's only below 50% in four of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, according to Morning Consult's monthly tracking poll.

Why it matters: To win the Senate — a goal that's less likely than winning the House — Democrats would need to win 14 of these 17 races. And with a packed fall campaign schedule, Trump plans to make the midterms more, not less, of a referendum on him.

Expand chart
Note: Includes races categorized as "Likely", "Lean" and "Tossup" by Cook Political Report as of Aug. 31. Data: Morning Consult and Cook Political Reports; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Among the races classified by Cook Political Report as "likely" Democrat or Republican, "lean" Democrat or Republican, or "tossup":

  • Trump has lost the most ground since inauguration in Arizona, Florida, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
  • Of the 10 Trump-voting states with vulnerable Democratic senators, he is below 50% approval in four of them (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and at 50% in two others (North Dakota and Florida).
  • He's above 50% in the rest, and soaring at 63% approval in West Virginia.

The bottom line: Trump's approval ratings are well below 50% nationally — and that's the level where the president's party usually loses more congressional seats in midterm elections. But the state-by-state map shows us why the Senate isn't as vulnerable as the House.

Go deeper

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

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The big picture: Right now, we should be less worried about robots taking human jobs than people in low-skilled positions being forced to work like robots.

House passes $1.9 trillion COVID relief package

Photo: Screenshot via C-SPAN

The House approved President Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID relief package on a 219-212 vote early Saturday morning, sending it to the Senate for a possible rewrite before it gets to Biden's desk.

The big picture: The vote was a critical first step for the package, which includes $1,400 cash payments for many Americans, a national vaccination program, ramped-up COVID testing and contact tracing, state and local funding and money to help schools reopen.

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President Biden speaking after visiting a FEMA Covid-19 vaccination facility in Houston on Feb. 26. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden said Friday that "it's not the time to relax" coronavirus mitigation efforts and warned that the number of cases and hospitalizations could rise again as new variants of the virus emerge.

Why it matters: Biden, who made the remarks after touring a vaccination site in Houston, echoed CDC director Rochelle Walensky, who said earlier on Friday that while the U.S. has seen a recent drop in cases and hospitalizations, "these declines follow the highest peak we have experienced in the pandemic."