Sep 20, 2018

New data: Democrats crushing Republicans in 2018 elections

Neal Rothschild
Note: The 2018 data is preliminary through Sept. 12 and excludes runoffs, special elections and candidates who ran unopposed. Prior data includes unopposed candidates if they were on the ballot. Louisiana will hold their party primaries on Nov. 6 followed by a general election on Dec. 8; Data: Federal Election Commission (1998 to 2016) and Associated Press (2018); Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Riding a surge of enthusiasm in opposition to President Trump, more Democrats turned out in the primaries for House elections than Republicans this year — the first time that has happened since 2008.

Why it matters: 2008 was the last time Democrats won a majority in the House. They lost it in 2010, when Republican primary turnout skyrocketed and Democratic turnout plummeted — the reverse of what's happening now.

What's next: David Brady, electoral politics expert and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, predicts around a 7% Democratic turnout advantage in November driven by women, and particularly Independent women.

  • Meantime, Republicans are trying to energize their voters, since Republican National Committee polling suggests a majority of Trump voters don't believe Democrats could win the House, per Axios' Jonathan Swan.

Go deeper

Axios

The highest drama comes home

Trump departs the White House for a “Merry Christmas” campaign rally in Battle Creek, Michigan. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Here's a split screen for the ages: While House Democrats are impeaching President Trump, he'll be firing up supporters at an election rally in Michigan.

Why it matters: This is the perfect encapsulation of the impeachment process.

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Margaret Talev

Why 50+ women care about 2020

Data: AARP/Harris Poll; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new AARP survey by the Harris Poll examined what's driving women 50 and older ahead of next year's elections and found health care on top. The survey also found that older women’s concerns about Trump are eroding, but not upending, his support with Republicans and independents.

Why it matters: As the House of Representatives prepares to impeach the president, the priorities for this group of high-propensity voters are closer to home and different from what their male counterparts care most about.

Go deeperArrowDec 18, 2019
Axios

The road to Trump's impeachment

Trump and Zelensky shake hands during a meeting in New York in September. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

In six months, a phone call between President Trump and Ukraine's president escalated into a full-blown crisis that is culminating in Trump's impeachment.

What's next: Assuming the House approves articles of impeachment later tonight, Trump will face a trial in the Senate next month — which is likely to end in his acquittal, since Senate Republicans have already been openly dismissive about the merits of the case against him.

Go deeperArrowDec 18, 2019