Nov 6, 2018

What a midterms split would mean for 2020

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

FiveThirtyEight projects Democrats have an 87% chance of taking the House and Republicans have an 83% chance of winning the Senate.

Why it matters: This split has the potential to dramatically shift things for the Democratic senators with an eye on running for president in 2020.

  • Congressional gridlock and a risk of things like government shutdowns will be imminent, as a Democrat-led House tosses things to their colleagues in a GOP-controlled Senate who won't have the votes to pass them.
  • That could inspire some Democratic members to be open to more compromise and less confrontation with the other side, which would change the tribal 2020 calculus that we see building right now.
  • And the Democratic apparatus could be extinguished in places like Montana and Indiana if those red-state Democrats lose, giving little hope and resources to Democrats hoping to win Senate (and, in Indiana, gubernatorial) races in the future.

What to watch: Geography literally laid the battleground for the 2018 midterms. The two types of candidates who faced the biggest battles this cycle were Democratic senators in Trump country and House Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won. What happens in those areas tonight will lay the 2020 battleground, too.

Go deeper

First look: Trump courts Asian-American vote amid coronavirus

Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images

The president's re-election campaign debuts its "Asian Americans for Trump" initiative in a virtual event tonight, courting a slice of the nation's electorate that has experienced a surge in racism and harassment since the pandemic began.

The big question: How receptive will Asian-American voters be in this moment? Trump has stoked xenophobia by labeling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus" and the "Wuhan virus" and equating Chinatowns in American cities to China itself.

How the U.S. might distribute a coronavirus vaccine

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Now that there are glimmers of hope for a coronavirus vaccine, governments, NGOs and others are hashing out plans for how vaccines could be distributed once they are available — and deciding who will get them first.

Why it matters: Potential game-changer vaccines will be sought after by everyone from global powers to local providers. After securing supplies, part of America's plan is to tap into its military know-how to distribute those COVID-19 vaccines.

Amazon is gaining on shipping giants

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Amazon is emerging as a transportation juggernaut that could threaten carmakers, package delivery firms and even ride-hailing companies.

Why it matters: By building its own logistics ecosystem and investing in promising electric and autonomous vehicle startups, Amazon could lower its shipping costs to the point that partners like UPS become competitors instead.