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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

FiveThirtyEight projects Democrats have an 87% chance of taking the House and Republicans have an 83% chance of winning the Senate.

Why it matters: This split has the potential to dramatically shift things for the Democratic senators with an eye on running for president in 2020.

  • Congressional gridlock and a risk of things like government shutdowns will be imminent, as a Democrat-led House tosses things to their colleagues in a GOP-controlled Senate who won't have the votes to pass them.
  • That could inspire some Democratic members to be open to more compromise and less confrontation with the other side, which would change the tribal 2020 calculus that we see building right now.
  • And the Democratic apparatus could be extinguished in places like Montana and Indiana if those red-state Democrats lose, giving little hope and resources to Democrats hoping to win Senate (and, in Indiana, gubernatorial) races in the future.

What to watch: Geography literally laid the battleground for the 2018 midterms. The two types of candidates who faced the biggest battles this cycle were Democratic senators in Trump country and House Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won. What happens in those areas tonight will lay the 2020 battleground, too.

Go deeper

9 hours ago - World

Over 170 Palestinians injured in clashes with Israeli police in Jerusalem

An injured man is carried away as Israeli security forces clash with Palestinian protesters at the al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images

At least 178 Palestinians have been injured in clashes with Israeli police in Jerusalem, Reuters reported late Friday.

The big picture: The clashes come amid growing anger over the threatened eviction of Palestinians from their homes on land claimed by Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem. Tensions have also escalated in the occupied West Bank in recent weeks.

Updated 11 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Health: Coronavirus cases hit a seven-month low — Majority back vaccine proof requirements for travel, schools and work — The race to avoid a possible "monster" COVID variant.
  2. Politics: Oklahoma secures $2.6 million refund for hydroxychloroquine purchase — Why Biden's latest vaccine goal is his hardest yet.
  3. Vaccines: Pfizer begins application for full FDA approval of COVID-19 vaccine — Moderna says its COVID booster shot shows promise against variants.
  4. Economy: U.S. adds just 266,000 jobs in April, far below expectations — Americans' return to the skies could benefit smaller airlines.
  5. World: WHO authorizes China's Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use — Mixed response in Europe to Biden's vaccine patents bombshell.
  6. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

Ohio GOP censures Rep. Anthony Gonzalez over Trump impeachment vote

Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

The Ohio Republican Party on Friday censured Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) and called for him to resign for voting to impeach former President Trump in January, Reuters reports.

The big picture: Gonzalez is the latest Republican lawmaker to be punished for voting to impeach the former president on a charge of inciting the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection.