President Trump keeps talking up U.S. oil exports as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — but exports face real limits, Axios' Ben Geman reports.

🛢️ By the numbers: Combined exports for U.S. oil and petroleum products (gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) hit a record 12.9 million barrels per day last week.

• For crude oil specifically, intel firm Kpler expects April to close with an average of 5 million barrels per day.
• That's up from the more typical 3.5 million–4.5 million.

Yes, but: Kpler's Matt Smith says there's a hard ceiling of around 5.5 million daily barrels across any given month.

• U.S. ports can handle only so much oil and gas. Refineries are running at historically high — and likely unsustainable — levels.
• Either way, higher U.S. exports can only offset a small amount of the massive drop in Middle East shipments.

🌎 The big picture: The Iran war could redraw the global oil map.

• Mideast producers may build new pipelines to reduce their reliance on Hormuz.
• We could also see more tanker shipments from the U.S. and other countries outside the Persian Gulf.

👀 What we're watching: Whether all this upheaval attracts fresh private capital to expand U.S. Gulf Coast capacity.

• Several offshore crude port projects have been planned for years — though they're still big and uncertain long-term investments.

Go deeper ... Get Axios Future of Energy.

Business leaders' best shot at getting help from President Trump: Just be honest with him, former White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich told Mike Allen today.

🎤 Budowich, chatting with Mike at an Axios Communicators x Media Trends Live event this morning: "One [exec] asked me, 'What should I tell him? How should I position this issue?'"

• "I said, 'Just tell him the truth.' What is your truth?"
• He added that business leaders often get intimidated in the Oval Office and tell Trump everything's fine, even when it isn't.

👩‍💼 Budowich also said that current chief of staff Susie Wiles encourages dissension.

• "I think her real superpower is her humility — but self-confidence — in allowing people to make their case, whether she agrees with it or not, and be heard. And allowing any issue to be properly vetted [and] understood before the President is making a decision."

Go deeper.

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2. 💰 Google is investing $10 billion in Anthropic with $30 billion more on the table, Bloomberg reports. The move strengthens "the relationship between two companies that are at once partners and rivals" in the AI world. More from Axios' Madison Mills.
3. 🍄 The FDA is fast-tracking its review of three companies working on psychedelic drugs for treating depression and other mental health conditions. Go deeper.

Adults are rediscovering their college-era pregaming habit to save money on booze, The Wall Street Journal reports.

• That's the time-honored tradition of having a few drinks at home or at a friend's place before heading out for the night.

💵 Suntory Global Spirits CEO Greg Hughes tells The Journal: People are "trying to stretch the dollar by pregaming. You can see that's what's growing."

• Pocketable booze — mini bottles, flasks, etc. — is also trending... and getting snuck past event security guards.

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