Hakeem Jeffries' bid to win a House majority in November was dealt what Democrats are acknowledging was a major setback this morning:

• The Virginia Supreme Court struck down a congressional map that would have netted them as many as four seats

Why it matters: The decision is a huge boost to Republicans' chances of keeping the House: Even some Democrats now concede that they basically need to run the table in November.

• 🚨 Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement, "We are exploring all options to overturn this shocking decision. No matter what it takes."
• "Damn, California and Virginia were supposed to be our bigger ones," one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid getting out ahead of their leadership, said in a phone interview just after the ruling was released.
• 🌊 "This means we gotta make sure we have a good wave to win the House ... we have to make sure we win a lot of those toss-ups," the lawmaker said. "Democrats now have to pitch a perfect game."

Another House Democrat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, offered a one-word reaction in a text message to Axios: "F*****ck!!"

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said in a statement: "This is a setback that sends a terrible message to Americans — the powerful and elite will do everything they can to silence you."

🚗 Driving the news: The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of an April referendum that temporarily suspended the state's independent redistricting commission.

• Democrats had been aiming to implement maps that would turn their party's current 6-5 edge in the state's U.S. House delegation into a 10-1 advantage as a way to counter GOP redistricting in Texas and elsewhere.

"Democrats cannot take a midterm victory for granted," said a third House Democrat, adding that "relying too much on the administration's unpopularity and not enough of their own positive agenda could put an otherwise sure victory at risk."

• 🤢 Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) called the ruling "sickening" and said it is "clearly a disappointment."

💰 The intrigue: The ruling even has some lawmakers questioning the wisdom of Democrats spending $62.5 million to push the Virginia redistricting referendum — including nearly $40 million from Jeffries-aligned 501(c)4 House Majority Forward.

• "I feel like this is a colossal waste of resources that will further erode our politics," a fourth House Democrat told Axios, referring to the entire nationwide redistricting battle.
• "How many millions of dollars are we spending on this when the DNC is in debt and we have 40 frontline races to win?"

Yes, but: Many Democrats are still optimistic their party can win a big enough wave in November to overcome what is now a daunting structural disadvantage.

• "Trump will still have to deal with a Democratic majority in the House come November," Veasey said.
• Said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.): "In spite of all the redistricting machinations, I think we will take back the House."

The bottom line: This may still be a lose-lose for Jeffries, with even lawmakers who are optimistic about retaking the House acknowledging he will likely have — at best — an agonizingly narrow majority.

• "Everybody will exert their pressure," the first House Democrat said.
• Just ask House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) how much fun that has been for him.

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— Andrew Solender

👀 The speaker is staring down three messy fights when the House returns Tuesday.

Why it matters: Johnson may have survived "hell week" and ended the politically painful DHS shutdown just before Congress left town, but he'll return to Washington with a long to-do list.

💃 Senate Republicans' decision to include $1 billion in funding for security measures for President Trump's ballroom as part of the GOP's reconciliation package to fund ICE and CBP is already hitting some roadblocks with House Republicans.

• 🏗️ Trump had pledged that "no government funds" would be used in the ballroom's construction.
• But now Democrats are eager to highlight the affordability contrast and get their Republican colleagues on record supporting the funding.

😡 And Trump's insistence that the 60-day deadline does not apply to his Iran operation is fueling bipartisan frustration on Capitol Hill.

• Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) introduced an AUMF on Thursday that would require Trump to end U.S. military involvement in Iran by July 30, the latest sign of growing Republican unease with the conflict.
• House Democrats could continue forcing votes on war powers resolutions, putting vulnerable Republicans in politically tricky positions.

💬 Conversations around sexual harassment and misconduct on Capitol Hill also threaten to boil over when lawmakers return.

• Look for Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) to keep pressuring Johnson to change how Congress handles misconduct allegations and staff protections.
• 💥 The renewed push comes after Axios reported allegations that Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) had inappropriate relationships with two young female staffers.
• One House Republican told Axios they believe Edwards "should go."

Bonus: Congressional leaders also have a short runway before another FISA expiration deadline.

• 🏈 Lawmakers have already punted the issue twice and remain far from an agreement on a long-term extension of Section 702, the government's warrantless surveillance authority.

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— Kate Santaliz