Republican chances of keeping the House are surging, as panicked Democrats scramble to offset back-to-back-to-back redistricting blows, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.

Why it matters: Democrats feel good about their midterm affordability focus. But they're nervous about the math for retaking the House since Republicans appear (for now) to have won this year's redistricting wars.

• And they're wondering why the party spent $65 million on a losing effort.

🤬 "F*****ck!!" a House Democrat texted Axios' Andrew Solender after Virginia's Supreme Court invalidated the state's new congressional maps.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) vowed to pursue "all options to overturn this shocking decision."

Zoom in: Depression dominated Democrats' public statements and private text threads as the party absorbed its third redistricting loss in 12 days.

• 🌴 Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis responded to Virginia's aggressive D+4 redistricting on April 21 by unveiling maps on April 27 that carved four additional Republican seats into Florida's 20-8 map.
• 📃 The U.S. Supreme Court opened the door to another four or five Republican seats across the South by weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
• ⚖️ The Virginia Supreme Court's ruling yesterday turned a slight GOP advantage into a clear edge.

Zoom out: The significance of the Virginia ruling may seem seismic today. By November, it could look incidental.

• If the political environment turns sharply against President Trump and Republicans — fueled by rising inflation and sinking consumer confidence — Democrats may not have to worry about the X's and O's of redistricting.
• Their candidates have consistently overperformed in special elections this cycle compared with Trump-era turnout.

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President Trump is flexing his dominance over the Republican Party to stamp out primaries that would bleed party coffers and fracture the GOP ahead of the treacherous midterm elections, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.

• If the party defies expectations and keeps control of Congress this fall, Trump's ruthless maneuvers to sideline some candidates while forcefully backing others will be a big reason.

🧮 By the numbers: Trump has picked favorites in more primaries than any other president in history.

• He endorsed 95% of the 217-member House GOP Conference, including 43 candidates running in the Cook Political Report's 60 most competitive House races.
• He endorsed Republican candidates in nearly two-thirds of Senate races.

🥊 Behind the scenes: Trump's hardball tactics were on display last week, when the president asked Kentucky Senate candidate Nate Morris to step aside.

• Trump told Morris — a friend of Donald Trump Jr. who had been endorsed by conservative activist Charlie Kirk before Kirk's death last year — that he planned to endorse Rep. Andy Barr.
• After Morris announced he was dropping out, Trump said on social media that he would be appointing him to an ambassadorship to be announced soon.
• A similar scenario played out in March, when Trump un-endorsed Hope Scheppelman in her primary challenge to Colorado Rep. Jeff Hurd, then announced she'd be joining the administration.

🔭 Zoom in: Trump decided shortly after taking office last year that he wanted to play an active role in primaries.

• He particularly wanted to endorse vulnerable incumbents early to nip challenges in the bud, a source familiar with Trump's thinking said.

👀 What to watch: This year's ugliest primary is on the Republican side, in Texas, and Trump could have stopped it. Instead, he was torn between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and didn't weigh in. The runoff is May 26.

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The Trump administration's flat-out claim that no one is illegally crossing the Southwest border is starting to fall apart, Axios' Brittany Gibson reports.

• The rush of migrants seeking asylum has stopped. But smugglers and cartels are working as hard as ever.

"We're still seeing the groups cross in the very difficult terrain to work, head-to-toe camouflage, large backpacks, things like that," says Capt. Timothy Williams of the Sheriff's Office of Cochise County, Arizona.

• He designed and runs the Southeastern Arizona Border Region Enforcement (SABRE) program that uses cameras to track illegal border crossings from California to New Mexico.

⚠️ Zoom in: Three data points suggest the Southwest border is far leakier than Trump officials admit.

1. SABRE tracks 200-300 crossers per month across the border, with about a 33% apprehension rate.
2. Roughly 200 Border Patrol agents were recently reassigned to the Laredo sector in Texas to address an increase in "gotaways" (people detected crossing the border but not apprehended), the Daily Wire first reported.
3. Compared to March of 2025, this year saw an increase in arrests in sectors along more than half of the Southwest border's mileage.

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The job market is steady (above) and unemployment remains at a healthy 4.3%. But consumer sentiment (below) keeps hitting record lows, with rising gas prices partially to blame.

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Soccer participation and fandom have exploded between the last World Cup on American soil in 1994 and the one that kicks off June 11, Axios Charlotte's Ashley Mahoney reports.

• Now men's and women's pro teams are spread across the country. "You have a market that's grown to where people can have real careers in our sport," U.S. Soccer Federation CEO JT Batson said.

⚽️ By the numbers: Amateur participation has also ballooned. For ages 6 and up, more than 16.7 million Americans played outdoor soccer in 2025, according to Sports & Fitness Industry Association data.

🇺🇸 Flashback: U.S. men's national team and Charlotte FC defender Tim Ream told Axios he can remember watching the 1994 World Cup as a 6-year-old. He's the only player on the current USMNT squad who can.

• When he was growing up, live soccer on TV was rare. Now, he says, nearly anyone who wants to watch a game can find a way to do it.

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Today's flex for many wealthy trendsetters is a self-driving Tesla. But when everyone has a robot driver, the real status symbol may be a human one, Axios' Joann Muller writes.

• Why it matters: The notion of luxury is evolving as automation spreads across the economy, putting a premium on high-end personalized services provided by real people.

🤖 The big picture: Autonomous vehicles today are an expensive, high-tech marvel that few people have experienced.

• But as Waymo, Zoox and others bring robotaxis to more cities, driverless rides will become cheaper, opening access to everyone.
• That's when behavior flips: Robotaxis will become commodities for getting from A to B, while hiring a human driver is likely to become an act of conspicuous consumption.
• "Doormen aren't necessary, per se, as Amazon can drop off packages and Ring cameras can provide security. But doormen offer premium service in terms of security and discretion," said AV industry veteran Rob Grant, co-founder of research firm Autnmy AI.

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Momflation is pushing up the cost of flowers, brunch and gifts, producing a spate of budgeting, bargain hunting and strategic splurging, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.

• Why it matters: Mother's Day is a snapshot of the modern U.S. consumer economy. Even as shoppers complain about inflation and rising prices, many are still willing to spend on special occasions — just more selectively.

💳 The big picture: Numerator survey data found 43% of shoppers planned to seek out promotions or coupons, 30% planned to buy fewer gifts and 26% planned to switch to lower-priced products.

🌹Zoom in: Groundwork Collaborative told Axios that flower prices are up 16% from a year ago, adding roughly $441 million in additional spending this Mother's Day season. The increase is driven partly by tariffs on imported flowers and by higher air-freight costs.

♥️ The bottom line: Rising prices are pushing shoppers toward smaller bouquets, brunch over dinner and simpler gifts that still carry emotional weight.

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Move over TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Traders are now embracing the NACHO trade, according to CNBC.

• That's shorthand for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens." It captures the growing skepticism that Trump's claims of progress with Iran will actually result in a deal to open the strait.

💡 Which enterprising AMer will give us an acronym for QUESADILLA? Hit me: [email protected].