Get the latest market trends in your inbox

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with the Axios Markets newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Minneapolis-St. Paul

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa-St. Petersburg news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa-St. Petersburg

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is steepening, which typically means investors are growing more confident about the economy. However, analysts say recent moves are actually the result of more fear being priced into the market.

Why it matters: Rather than bets U.S. growth or inflation will pick up, as is the case when the curve sees "bull steepening," action in the Treasury market reflects worry that things could get especially bad in the short term, Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, tells Axios.

  • "That's not a good thing."

Details: Investors saw fresh cracks in the U.S. economy from both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports this week, as well as declines in private payroll growth from ADP and an increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits amid GM's auto workers strike.

  • The poor data also pulls forward expectations that the Fed will have to cut U.S. interest rates at its next meeting and again in December.

What they're saying: "Earlier this week it was a coin flip on whether or not the Fed was going to cut rates this month or in December, but the ISM and ISM non-mfg changed the odds quite significantly in a short amount of time," DRW Trading market strategist Lou Brien tells Axios in an email.

The big picture: While the Fed has qualified its 2 rate cuts this year as "midcycle adjustments," having to lower rates at its next 2 meetings "would be the Fed’s worst fears coming true," Brien says, signaling a much worse state of play for the U.S. economy.

Of note: The 3-month/10-year yield curve that economists call the best predictor of a recession remains inverted by a wide margin, and 1-month T-bill yields have ticked up to 24 basis points above those on the 10-year.

Go deeper

Ina Fried, author of Login
15 mins ago - Technology

Tech's race problem is all about power

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

As problematic as the tech industry's diversity statistics are, activists say the focus on those numbers overlooks a more fundamental problem — one less about numbers than about power.

What they're saying: In tech, they argue, decision-making power remains largely concentrated in the hands of white men. The result is an industry whose products and working conditions belie the industry rhetoric about changing the world for the better.

Mayors fear long-lasting effects of COVID-19

Data: Menino Survey of Mayors; Chart: Axios Visuals

U.S. mayors tend to be an optimistic bunch, but a poll released Thursday finds them unusually pessimistic about prospects for post-pandemic recovery.

Why it matters: In a survey of mayors of 130 U.S. cities with more than 75,000 residents, 80% expect racial health disparities to widen, and an alarming number predict that schools, transit systems and small businesses will continue to suffer through 2021 and beyond.

Coronavirus hospitalizations top 100,000 for the first time

Expand chart
Data: The COVID Tracking ProjectHarvard Global Health Institute; Cartogram: Danielle Alberti and Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

More than 100,000 Americans are now in the hospital with coronavirus infections — a new record, an indication that the pandemic is continuing to get worse and a reminder that the virus is still very dangerous.

Why it matters: Hospitalizations are a way to measure severe illnesses — and severe illnesses are on the rise across the U.S. In some areas, health systems and health care workers are already overwhelmed, and outbreaks are only getting worse.