May 11, 2019

How each country's population will change in the next 30 years

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Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Kerrie Vila/Axios

What the chart shows: Follow each country’s age-structure from 2000 to 2050. The bars show the percentage of the population that falls into each 5-year age group. For instance, you can see Nigeria‘s continuing baby boom in the longer bars at the base of its pyramid; China and Germany, however, have bulges in the 60-85 age ranges.

Changing economic incentives, social expectations for women, and religious landscapes have upended the global age structure — and we're only seeing the beginning.

Between the lines: The developed world is having fewer babies, which means fewer working-age people to support the bulge of retiring and aging baby boomers. Meanwhile the population of Africa is surging.

How we got here:

Women's education: Better-educated women correlates with lower fertility rates and vice versa, according to Our World in Data.

  • In poorer developing countries, women's education and opportunity outside of raising a family lags behind the richer world, resulting in more women bearing children than their developed-world counterparts.
  • "Women with choices lead the way to secularization," Eric Kaufmann, a demographer and politics professor at Birkbeck College, told Axios.
  • But for most of the rest of the world, fertility rates have been dropping since the 1960s as women have increasingly pursued higher education and found more opportunity in the workforce, says Richard Jackson of the Global Aging Institute. That opportunity continues to expand, further reducing the number of children born to women from the EU, the U.S., China or Japan, as well as delaying childbearing.

Yes, but: Studies have found that in the U.S., women with the highest education — beyond a bachelor's degree — have higher fertility rates than women with only an undergraduate degree. This is probably a result of their greater financial stability as well as more opportunities to combine child-rearing with a career, according to Kaufmann.

The bottom line: Child-rearing costs have skyrocketed in much of the developed world. The 2008 recession hit middle class families hard everywhere, and some traditional financial incentives to having multiple children are no longer relevant.

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 12 p.m. ET: 5,449,135 — Total deaths: 345,721 — Total recoveries — 2,188,200Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 1,647,741 — Total deaths: 97,811 — Total recoveries: 366,736 — Total tested: 14,163,915Map.
  3. 2020: Trump threatens to move Republican convention from North Carolina.
  4. World: White House announces travel restrictions on Brazil Over 100 cases in Germany tied to single day of church services — Top Boris Johnson aide defends himself after allegations he broke U.K. lockdown
  5. Public health: Officials are urging Americans to wear masks over Memorial Day.
  6. Economy: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says it's possible the unemployment rate could still be in double digits by November's election.
  7. What should I do? Hydroxychloroquine questions answeredTraveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagiousMasks, lending books and self-isolatingExercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingHow to minimize your risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it, the right mask to wear.

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