Iraqi officials, struggling to form a new government months after May parliamentary elections, now have an even more pressing concern: persuading the Trump administration to waive sanctions that could deprive Iraq of 40% of its electricity. Due to go into effect November 5, the sanctions will exclude from the U.S. market foreign companies that buy Iranian oil, natural gas and petrochemicals. Bound by a “take-or-pay” contract with Iran, Iraq must pay $3 million a year for Iranian natural gas regardless of whether it's received.
Why it matters: For Iraq, which did $12 billion in trade with Iran last year, the impact would be particularly dire. In addition to losing natural gas supplies that account for 6,000 megawatts of electricity, Iraq could face potentially huge penalties if its neighbor takes it to arbitration for violating this contract. Just a month ago, the second-largest city in Iraq, Basra, exploded in riots in part because of electrical blackouts. Just imagine how much violence and disruption could occur if those blackouts were nationwide.