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Expand chart
Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

Because of higher fuel prices, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that U.S. households will spend more to heat their homes this winter.

Driving the news: When looking at winter forecasts, there are reasons to be concerned that parts of the U.S. — not to mention Europe, which is fully in the grips of an energy crisis, will see significant cold snaps.

The big picture: This winter is likely to be another La Niña winter, which will feature colder-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Such winters tend to be wetter and cooler than average in the Pacific Northwest, colder than usual in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest, wetter in the Ohio Valley, and drier in the South.

Yes, but: They also tend to be highly volatile from one week to the next.

  • Matt Rogers, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group, told Axios they are forecasting a colder-than-average winter in the U.S. and Europe compared to last year.
  • Rogers' group is forecasting about 0.5% higher energy demand for the U.S. this winter, compared to 7% higher energy demand in Europe year over year.

Meanwhile, Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's top long-range forecaster, has his eyes on the polar vortex, the high-level swirl of frigid, low pressure above the Arctic. So too does Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at AER.

  • There are signs, Pastelok told Axios, that the vortex could start the winter weaker than average, which would favor Arctic cold slipping southward into the U.S. and Europe.
  • Cohen says this may not hold for the rest of winter, however.

Go deeper: Biden's winter energy chill

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Oct 14, 2021 - Energy & Environment

Biden's winter energy chill

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

Higher home energy prices heading into the chilly months are the latest energy-related problem facing Joe Biden at a sensitive time in his young presidency.

Driving the news: The Energy Department's independent stats arm projects heating bills this winter will rise thanks to higher commodity prices and predictions of a colder winter.

Global energy crisis could dim climate hopes

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

An energy crisis around the world is hitting households and manufacturers that were already struggling to recover from the global pandemic.

Why it matters: This is a perfect storm of crises. It features supply shortages, especially from China; inflation; slowing growth; labor shortages; Russia’s continued geopolitical muscle-flexing and, of course, the fear that the world will burn to a crisp.

Updated 15 mins ago - World

Police charge man with murder of British MP David Amess

Police outside Belfairs Methodist Church in Leigh-on-Sea, England, on Oct. 15. Photo: John Keeble/Getty Images

Police said Thursday that Ali Harbi Ali, a 25-year-old British man, has been charged with the murder of David Amess, a Conservative Party lawmaker in the U.K.

The big picture: Last week, the Metropolitan Police declared the fatal stabbing a terrorist incident, saying that they had found "a potential motivation linked to Islamist extremism."