Mar 16, 2017

Why investors are giddy for Trump's anti-regulation campaign

Paul Sancya/AP

The Trump Rally has been on pause for two weeks, but its record since Election Day has nonetheless been close to historic. There's no doubt that investor euphoria is in part due to change in leadership in Washington and the promise in particular of less regulation.

Why it matters: Eliminating regulation is the most potent ways for government to boost economic growth, but the market may be overestimating what Trump can deliver without 60 votes in the Senate.

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Data: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios.com

The Trump rally has been dominated by the financial service sector, and independent banking analyst Chris Whalen says this is because banks have the most to gain from deregulation, in the form of a Dodd-Frank overhaul.

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Data: Mercatus Center; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios.com

The cost of regulation: Wall Street has evidence to support its optimism. Research published by George Mason University's Mercatus Center over the summer estimated that the costs of regulation in terms of economic growth. It found:

  • National income in 2012 would have been $13,000 higher per person had the federal government added no regulations between 1980 and 2011.
  • It assumes that for every regulation added, one would be eliminated. Trump is promising to eliminate two regulations for every one added, a policy that could supercharge growth over the long term if faithfully implemented.

Not so fast: For one, the costs of not regulating business — like worse health and climate change — often don't show up in GDP figures.

  • The most significant EPA regulations claim to save thousands of lives — a priceless benefit for those helped by these rules.
  • To make large and swift contributions to American businesses and the economy, Congress would have to change the laws that support regulations. But with healthcare and tax reform higher priorities than financial regulations, it's not clear we'll get a Dodd-Frank overhaul anytime soon. As Whalen puts it, "Wall Street is way over its skis," when it comes to bidding up banks.

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CDC: Coronavirus antibodies could give "short-term immunity," but more data is needed

CDC Director Robert Redfield briefs reporters on April 8. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Coronavirus antibody tests are still relatively unreliable, and scientists still aren't sure whether people who get the virus are immune to getting it again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautioned on Tuesday.

What they're saying: The agency explicitly warned against using antibody tests to determine whether someone should return to work or to group people within schools or prisons.

Trump accuses Twitter of interfering in 2020 election

President Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. Photo: Mandel Ngan/Getty Images

President Trump responded via tweets Tuesday evening to Twitter fact-checking him for the first time on his earlier unsubstantiated posts claiming mail-in ballots in November's election would be fraudulent.

What he's saying: "Twitter is now interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election.They are saying my statement on Mail-In Ballots, which will lead to massive corruption and fraud, is incorrect, based on fact-checking by Fake News CNN and the Amazon Washington Post," the president tweeted. "Twitter is completely stifling FREE SPEECH, and I, as President, will not allow it to happen!"

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 5,584,091 — Total deaths: 349,894 — Total recoveries — 2,284,242Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 1,680,301 — Total deaths: 98,875 — Total recoveries: 384,902 — Total tested: 14,907,041Map.
  3. Federal response: DOJ investigates meatpacking industry over soaring beef pricesMike Pence's press secretary returns to work.
  4. Congress: House Republicans to sue Nancy Pelosi in effort to block proxy voting.
  5. Business: How the new workplace could leave parents behind.
  6. Tech: Twitter fact-checks Trump's tweets about mail-in voting for first timeGoogle to open offices July 6 for 10% of workers.
  7. Public health: CDC releases guidance on when you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus.
  8. What should I do? When you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus — Traveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagiousMasks, lending books and self-isolatingExercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingHow to minimize your risk.
  9. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it, the right mask to wear.

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Updated 43 mins ago - Politics & Policy