The latest Affordable Care Act repeal and replacement bill, sponsored by Sens. Bill Cassidy, Lindsey Graham, Dean Heller and Ron Johnson, would both reduce and redistribute federal health care funding to the states. And that would create clear winners and losers among states. The left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities ran the numbers to figure out how each state would fare.

Our thought bubble: This is the biggest reason we think the Graham-Cassidy bill is unlikely to go anywhere. To pass it, GOP senators from states like Arizona and Florida would have to vote to give up federal dollars to, effectively, subsidize states like Texas and Alabama.

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Data: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis; Cartogram: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What the bill would do:

  • Converts funding for the ACA's premium subsidies and Medicaid expansion into a block grant, which would result in states getting less money. This funding would stop after 2026.
  • Changes the current open-ended federal match for Medicaid spending into a per-person funding cap, which also would result in less federal funding for states over time.
  • Allows states to waive many of the ACA's consumer protections, like its essential health benefits and the requirement that insurers charge sick and healthy people the same premium.

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Roger Marshall wins Republican Senate nomination in Kansas primary

Rep. Roger Marshall. Photo: Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images

Rep. Roger Marshall won the Kansas Republican Senate primary on Tuesday evening, beating former Secretary of State Kris Kobach and a slew of other candidates, AP reports.

Why it matters: Following GOP Sen. Pat Roberts' retirement announcement, some Republicans worry that if Kobach won the primary it would endanger the party's chances of keeping the seat and maintaining a majority in the Senate.

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Primary races to watch in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington

Photo: Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

Primary elections on Tuesday in fives states see crowded fields of both Republicans and Democrats hoping to make the ballot in 2020.

What to watch: Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) is "fighting for her political life" in a tight primary race against Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, who Tlaib beat by 900 votes in 2018, The New York Times writes. Senate Republicans are also watching the primary race in Kansas to see who could replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Roberts.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 18,448,084 — Total deaths: 698,023 — Total recoveries — 11,048,174Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 4,765,170 — Total deaths: 156,668 — Total recoveries: 1,528,979 — Total tests: 57,543,852Map.
  3. States: New York City health commissioner resigns in protest of De Blasio's coronavirus response — Local governments go to war over schools.
  4. Public health: 59% of Americans support nationwide 2-week stay-at-home order in NPR poll.
  5. Politics: Trump's national security adviser returns to work after coronavirus recovery Republicans push to expand small business loan program.
  6. Sports: Indy 500 to be held without fansRafael Nadal opts out of U.S. Open.