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In March, President Trump welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

President Trump has spent three years accruing political capital with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and, today, with the release of the administration's Middle East peace plan, we will learn how much of it Trump is willing to spend.

Between the lines: If he offers the Palestinians their own state, that move alone would meet opposition in conservative Israeli circles. But Trump has done so much for Netanyahu that it’s hard to imagine Netanyahu defying him even if he faces internal pressure.

  • Trump's support for Israel — and Netanyahu — so far includes recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the embassy there, recognizing the Golan Heights, and unequivocal support for Israel’s security.

The state of play: The Trump administration team, led by Jared Kushner, is releasing this plan after having only very limited contact with the Palestinians.

  • The Trump team is hoping that supportive statements from Arab neighbors, and some European countries typically supportive of the Palestinians, will encourage the Palestinian people to pressure their leaders to go back to the negotiating table.

The big picture: The peace plan has been the most secretive effort inside an extraordinarily leaky administration. Not a single detail has leaked for three years about how the Trump administration will propose to divide territory between Israel and the Palestinians.

  • The details have been closely held among Jared Kushner and his small team — Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, special representative for international negotiations Avi Berkowitz, and senior State Department official Brian Hook. Trump’s former negotiator Jason Greenblatt also played a key role in crafting the plan.
  • Some key allies who have been asked to provide statements of support have yet to see details of the plan.

Go deeper: Jared's peace plan finally arrives

Go deeper

The new Washington

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Axios subject-matter experts brief you on the incoming administration's plans and team.

Rep. Lou Correa tests positive for COVID-19

Lou Correa. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.) announced on Saturday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Why it matters: Correa is the latest Democratic lawmaker to share his positive test results after last week's deadly Capitol riot. Correa did not shelter in the designated safe zone with his congressional colleagues during the siege, per a spokesperson, instead staying outside to help Capitol Police.

Far-right figure "Baked Alaska" arrested for involvement in Capitol siege

Photo: Shay Horse/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The FBI arrested far-right media figure Tim Gionet, known as "Baked Alaska," on Saturday for his involvement in last week's Capitol riot, according to a statement of facts filed in the U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia.

The state of play: Gionet was arrested in Houston on charges related to disorderly or disruptive conduct on the Capitol grounds or in any of the Capitol buildings with the intent to impede, disrupt, or disturb the orderly conduct of a session, per AP.